Trends in the concentration of economic activity and disparities in Russia’s spatial development

Аннотация

The spatial distribution of economic activity in Russia is studied by quantitative methods and qualitative analysis. The characteristics of evolution of economic activity distribution have been obtained with an approach based on analysis of Markov chains and mobility indices. The study has shown that the processes of the spatial concentration of production continue to unfold in the modern Russian economy. In addition to preserving and strengthening positions of existing centers, it is possible to observe the formation of new ones and simultaneously a certain weakening of former resource centers. Analysis of the evolution of this distribution has demonstrated the presence of an active poverty trap and a wealth trap, as well as a tendency toward the formation of an intermediate group of federal subjects with regard to their economic activity level. With preserving trends of the study period, the final distribution of regions in terms of economic activity level shows the formation of a rather wide pole of relative poverty and a wealth pole that concentrates a significant share of produced value added. The emerging group of regions with the average level of development is relatively small. In such circumstances, regional policy aimed at stimulating developed regions only strengthens this polarization. We consider that a more sensible policy would be to reduce disproportions in territorial development in order to avoid excessive deepening of interregional disparities and inequality.