Alternatives to transport support for development of Russia’s Arctic shelf

详细

Based on a case study of the problem of transport support for resource extraction on Russia’s Arctic shelf, an approach is described and implemented to select an expedient strategy for solving weak structurization problems under the conditions of an uncertain scenario. To structurize the problem, a goal tree is constructed and scenarios and strategies are described. The scenarios indicate possible conditions of the external environment in which the problem is solved. The strategies differ in the ways cargoes are shipped: primarily by sea (Northern Sea Route) or by Siberian rivers. It is shown that the Transpolar Railway is necessary for any strategy. The authors have developed a technique and software for collecting and processing expert information, which is used to construct numerical estimates of the significance of goals. This method also allows us to estimate the degrees of achievement of a general goal as a result of using each strategy under the conditions of each scenario; these estimates are entered into the evaluation matrix. An expedient strategy is chosen according to the evaluation matrix with the help of strategic criteria (Laplace, Wald, Hurwitz, and Savage).