Dendroclimatic Assessment of a 200-Year-Old Scots Pine Stand in the Voronezh Biosphere Reserve

Аннотация

This paper addresses the effects of climatic limiting factors (precipitation and air temperature) on the radial increment variability of Scots pine (Pinus silvestris L.) growing in the Voronezh State Biosphere Reserve under the conservation regime conditions. A natural 200-year-old pine stand belonging to the grassy pine forest with oak type was studied. The following analyses have been performed: a mathematical analysis of the strength and frequency of the relationship between the monthly precipitation amounts and average monthly air temperatures (based on the data of Voronezh and Voronezh Nature Reserve meteorological stations), as well as radial increments of the Scots pine throughout the period of 80 years. It was established that the sums of precipitation in April and especially in May have the maximum effect on the radial increment of Scots pine (spring wood). The precipitation in July–August significantly affects the late wood growth. A strong correlation between the radial increment and September and especially October temperatures of the current year (r = 0.43) and the previous year (r = 0.40) was identified. In addition, a negative correlation between the radial increment and summer temperatures was established. The correlation ratio of the relationship between the meteorological factors and radial increment was considerably higher than the correlation index, which confirms the nonlinear nature of this relationship. Based on the cyclical dynamics of the radial increment of Scots pine (11- and 34-year cycles), models have been built using two forecasting methods (Caterpillar Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and an additive increment model described by a sinusoid function with a given period), and an increment forecast for the 10-year period was produced. According to the models, the radial increment is going to decrease in 2018–2019, increase in 2021 ± 1, and decrease again in 2024 ± 2.