Vol 19, No 1 (2024)
Economic Theory
The model for an efficient development of innovation activities in industrial
Abstract
Introduction. The current economic situation determines specific requirements for the development of domestic industrial structures. These requirements are designed to enhance structures’ innovation activities and accelerate scientific and technological update for technological sovereignty and higher competitiveness in the world market. However, a number of challenges hinder the innovative development of enterprises and prevent a change in their ranking status among leading high-tech companies. A lack of efficient innovation activities could be explained by the imperfect methodological tools applied to innovation management and template thinking typical for the majority of top managers, which both erects barriers to progressive changes and provides prerequisites for new formidable challenges in strategy implementation for the rapid development of the Russian economy.
Purpose. The key goal of the scientific research is to develop a model for an efficient development of innovative activities in industrial enterprises. The model is designed to contribute to favorable conditions for the growth of highly efficient businesses flexibly adapting to current realities and challenges.
Materials and Methods. To achieve the goal, the author referred to the methods of structural analysis and synthesis, generalization, analogy, modeling, system analysis, and optimization.
Results. The analysis led to working out scientific recommendations for better efficient functioning of domestic enterprises in the field of innovation. Unlike the existing recommendations, these ones contribute to the qualitative bifurcation of their innovation systems and the achievement of a synergistic effect. Conclusions. The conclusions drawn are of high practical importance for improving the innovative activities of the Russian enterprises and increasing their competitive advantages in the context of global changes. The strategic guideline for further research is the issues of methodological and technological support for the developed proposals.



Hysteresis in economics: Analysis of the relationship between business cycles, economic growth, and economic policy
Abstract
Introduction. The article analyzes the relationship between business cycles and economic growth, and reviews the evolution of this issue from the traditional denial of any connection to an alternative theory known as hysteresis. The main focus is on examining policy solutions efficiently countering structural changes induced by recessions. It is crucial to emphasize that the study of hysteresis remains highly relevant as this mechanism can be a key element in shaping efficient economic policies. These strategies, in their turn, aim at overcoming structural obstacles and promoting sustainable economic growth. Purpose. The study investigates the impact of hysteresis on business cycles, long-term economic growth, and the development of the appropriate macroeconomic policies by the state.
Materials and Methods. The article explores the history and interrelation of business cycle and trend definitions, analyzes the main channels of hysteresis manifestation. It also reviews and analyzes studies about the development of DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models with hysteresis and its influence on decision-making in economic policy. In this context, the paper describes DSGE models based on the insiders – outsiders theory, learning by doing, and R&D (Research and Development) modeling.
Results. A theoretical insider-outsider approach as the main policy measure stabilizes the labor market by wage inflation management. DSGE models also include the models with learning-by-doing mechanism; they show the impact of hysteresis on the net fiscal multiplier and the efficiency of fiscal stimulus. The analysis reveals that hysteresis significantly increases the net fiscal multiplier, thus making fiscal stimulus more efficient during recessions and recoveries in the long-run level of output. The endogenous R&D modeling emphasizes the importance of long-run monetary non-neutrality and the impact of monetary policy on financial and innovation performance and outlines the prospects for welfare improvement with asymmetric policy instruments that take into account economic specialization.
Conclusions. Hysteresis presupposes specific monetary, credit, and fiscal policy measures to ensure economic stabilization. The positive welfare multiplier typical for fiscal policy highlights its efficiency in hysteresis conditions. The study also points to the prospects of better welfare with asymmetric policy tools, especially in terms of economic specialization.



Mathematical, Statistical and Instrumental Methods in Economy
Stock market volatility simulation with the LSTM neural network
Abstract
Introduction. Stock market volatility simulation and forecast are relevant issues which could contribute into lower risks and higher revenues of the market transactions. These days, AI-based methods, including deep neural networks, are quite promising for volatility simulation.
Purpose. The paper verifies a hypothesis concerning a higher accuracy of LSTM neural network compared to the classical autoregressive models (e.g. ARIMA) and long memory models (e.g. ARFIMA).
Materials and Methods. To check the hypothesis, the authors conducted simulation experiments with S&P 500 index data generally illustrating the dynamics of the US stock market. Results. The LSTM neural network gave significantly more accurate forecasts compared to the ARIMA- and ARFIMA-based forecasts for learning and test samples; ARFIMA model was more accurate than ARIMA, which supports previous data.
Conclusions. The results of the work prove that the LSTM neural network is a promising method to forecast stock market volatility and could be further examined in this area. Machine learning methods, including the neural networks, could be used to define the future dynamics in the revenues of financial asserts and optimize current algorithms of portfolio imbalances, approximation and simulation of risk metrics, approximation of probabilistic characteristics for financial instruments.



Fuzzy logic and machine learning methods applied to the analysis of industrial power consumption under the condition of uncertainty
Abstract
Introduction. Recently, the fuzzy logic method has been widely implemented in solving various problems of economic research, including theoretical analysis of the economy and its resource dependence, the study of innovative processes in a resource-type economy.
Purpose. The purpose of the research is to analyze the dependence of industrial power consumption from various social economic factors with the fuzzy modeling method. This method is particularly well suited for modeling ill-defined systems with the significant uncertainty about the nature and range of key input variables and the underlying relationships between them. This system could be illustrated by the economy of modern Russia at the time of sanctions imposed by unfriendly states.
Materials and methods. The work refers to fuzzy modeling and machine learning methods. A random forest algorithm was used to select predictors and for comparative analysis.
Results. The results of fuzzy modeling were compared with the results obtained by modeling the analyzed relationship with multiple regression, and with the results obtained by applying the random forest method with regression decision trees to the data under study. Fuzzy logic-based modeling of the above-described dependence in the context of uncertainty is shown to be more adequate compared to regression-based modeling (including the random forest method).
Conclusion. The proposed fuzzy system (fuzzy inference system) can be used to study the influence of changes in any input factor or their combination on changes in industrial power consumption. The fuzzy system could reveal how much various production locations could change industrial electricity consumption or analyze the feasibility of a location in terms of access to labor resources. It is also possible to study how much the number of employees associated with the outflow of labor resources could change industrial electricity consumption.



Regional and Industrial Economics
National self-identification developed by megaproject financing methods of the economy
Abstract
Introduction. The article analyzes the interpretations of the concept “megaproject” and proposes the author’s definition of the concept presupposing explicit and implicit beneficiaries and ensuring high-tech products with a high potential for market sales. Purpose. Based on the results of the regression analysis, the paper draws conclusions and describes the behavior strategies of the explicit and implicit beneficiaries in the megaproject when its results are being registered and after it.
Materials and Methods. Theoretically and methodologically, the paper refers to the works of scientists examining megaprojects. The regression analysis for thirty constituent entities of the Russian Federation made it possible to determine that the indicators of their budget revenues illustrate that cash flows determined by the investment return from the investments in fixed capital go through the budget system with a minimal tax burden.
Results. It has been found that in the analyzed period, the return on investment in fixed assets was determined by the investors’ speculative motives when using financial market instruments under personal guarantees of the heads of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the applied financial market instruments gave the minimum inflow of taxes into the budget system of the Russian Federation.
Conclusions. In its model, Russia is closer to the continental civilizational type; the balance in the socio-economic relations determined by megaprojects with their maximum contribution to GDP could be achieved when national self-identification is distinctly shaped; national self-identification could only be developed with due regard to the quantitative and structural composition of population.



Remote employment in large cities: Gain for workers in terms of wages
Abstract
Introduction. The transition to telecommuting in response to restrictive measures implemented in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic raises the question of its long-term effects in defining a new post-covid labor market.
Purpose. The article aims at establishing spatial aspects in the analysis of the profession-defined differences found among remote workers’ wages.
Materials and Methods. The data base of the research includes HeadHunter job vacancies with a remote work schedule posted in the period from December 12, 2022, to January 12, 2023. Econometric analysis methods help estimate the return of job vacancies in large cities in terms of population on the remote workers’ proposed wages.
Results. Unlike in small cities, remote employment in large cities has a negative influence on the proposed wages, except for IT and sale areas. It is worth highlighting an IT area with the highest increase in the offered wages taking into consideration the size of the post vacancy city: employment in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other million-plus cities are “rewarded” by 45.5, 20.8, and 8.4 %, respectively. At the same time, Moscow employers in science and education, marketing, advertisement, PR, and administration offer the lowest wages among both large and small cities’ employers.
Conclusions. The transition to remote employment in the post-COVID labor market has led to refocusing on secondary forms of employment, as well as spatial heterogeneity in the remote workers’ wages. Further research may be devoted to the research of differences in the office and remote IT workers’ wages in terms of compensatory differences.



The population’s well-being in the region as a purpose of the regional development policy
Abstract
Introduction. Regional development is currently aimed at creating conditions for human life, improving the living standard and quality of life, which is reflected in the regulatory and legal regional policy. However, the definitions of the categories “living standard” and “quality of life” are debatable; therefore, choice of tools and mechanism could arise difficulties to achieve these goals in the frame of regional development. This scientific study suggests the category “population’s well-being in the region” as one of the comprehensive goals of the regional policy to resolve these controversial issues.
Purpose. The paper identifies the essential characteristics of the population's well-being in the region such as a set of benefits, their relationship and correlation with the concepts of “living standard” and “quality of life”, determines the place of this concept in the regional policy, and describes a new approach to the definition of the concept “population’s well-being in the region” from the perspective of the theory of goods.
Materials and Methods. To achieve this purpose, scientific sources were theoretically analyzed, and the obtained data was synthesized to accumulate new knowledge about the category “population’s well-being in the region”.
Results. The study revealed that the well–being of the population in the region is a complex and multidimensional category comprising of both the level of life and its quality for the population, as well as represented by economic and non-economic, tangible and intangible goods of a social, economic, environmental, and institutional nature.
Conclusion. A region being the object of regional policy is a system of interrelated elements, therefore regional development is the subject of the regional policy with the goal to increase the well-being of the population in the region. The comprehensive nature, versatility of this human-orientated category put it to the global concept of sustainable development with due regard to the regional interests in improving the level and quality of people’s lives.


