Epidemiological approach to forecasting the volume of orthopedic care (using the example of hospital)

Introduction: To rationalize the volume of purchases of consumable dental and dental materials, it was of interest to study the possibility of predicting the use of specific structures for orthopedic dental care.

Aim of investigation: To evaluate the possibility of using epidemiological data on the provision of orthopedic care over 8 calendar years to predict the volume of dental orthopedic care.

Materials and methods: An analysis was carried out of the number of patient visits to a dental hospital from 2014 to 2021 for the purpose of prosthetics with solid bridges, partial and complete removable laminar dentures using the least squares method, as well as an assessment of the volume of orthopedic care provided to patients during this period based on the data statistical reports of the institution.

Results: Studies have shown that the number of people receiving prostheses decreased from 183 to 111 per 1,000 applicants from 2014 to 2021. Using the example of specific dental orthopedic structures, the effectiveness of the proposed method for predicting the volume of care provided is shown. Thus, the need for complete removable prosthetics for 2022 was predicted from 46 to 58, and the real figure was 53 per 1000 applicants.

Conclusion: Forecasting the volume of orthopedic care for dental patients will make it possible to rationalize the approach to the purchase of structural materials for dentures.