Modeling of the spatial distribution of increased pre-seismic deformation areas

We present a novel approach within linear elasticity theory for modeling the spatial distribution of enhanced crustal deformations during earthquake preparation. Our model utilizes the Lamé differential equation system, representing the seismic source as a concentrated force system acting at a point within an elastic half-space. The associated boundary value problem is solved analytically using Green’s functions. The framework computes anomalous pre-seismic deformations at each surface point and quantifies their occurrence frequency relative to background tidal deformation thresholds.
The method was validated using the Global Centroid-Moment-Tensor Catalog for the Kamchatka Peninsula seismic zone. Simulations of deformation patterns preceding earthquakes (1976–2020) reveal:

• Deformation anomalies predominantly align with the primary coastal fault system;
• Peak occurrence frequencies (0.6–0.8) correlate with densely populated regions;
• Distinct temporal variability, with high-activity phases (0.6–0.8) interspersed with low-activity intervals (0.1–0.2).

This approach provides a robust tool for investigating pre-seismic deformation patterns and identifying multidisciplinary precursor phenomena in active tectonic regions.