Том 40, № 3 (2019)

A theoretical framework for environmental impact assessment of economic activity is formulated by using methods of mathematical modeling and thematic mapping. Theoretically, environment is considered as a surface of variety (manifold), linking various factors and conditions. Tangential planes to the surface correspond to any natural systems (ecosystems), individual according to their connections with the environment (points of tangency). An example of the display of the environmental variety is provided by landscape-typological maps of a territory. The equation of the plane specifies connections of factor parameters of ecosystems by taking into account their shift relative to environmental coordinates of these reference points. Different types of systemic interpretations of these equations (types of models) are formed with various quantitative criteria for change of in environmental status, such as the measures of responsibility and effectiveness of decisions made. Environmental impact assessment methods generally estimate changes in the state of natural systems rather than the transformation of their environment. Therefore, methods of distinguishing relevant indicators and selecting the characteristic features of their controlled changes are suggested. The antisymmetry of variability and stability is naturally discernible from the factors and conditions of economic activity, which is demonstrated by modeling the impact of economic processes on the environmental status: an assessment was made of the influence of the size of gross regional product on amounts of atmospheric emissions of pollutants as well as of waste water discharges on human health. The findings can be used in developing methods of mathematical modeling of the relationships between the ecological, economic and social blocks of territorial systems in order to solve problems of thematic mapping and seek optimal solutions in the field of environmental management.

The activity-geospatial approach as one of the most powerful interdisciplinary approaches in geopolitical research is considered. It provides a means of studying political phenomena in terms of the geospatial organization and self-organization of society, including its geopolitical organization. The key to this lies with the “geopolitical relation” category. It implies a unity of political activity and geographical space as well as an elementary subject for study. In the broader context, geopolitics is regarded as the political type of geo-adaptation of society. From this perspective, it is suggested that the following idealized types of geopolitical models be identified, namely: natural-geographical, socio-geographical, activity-related, and chronogeopolitical. A generalized logic of their construction is shown. The natural-geographical type describes a coercive determination of the characteristics of the geopolitical actor caused by natural phenomena as well as geo-adaptational pressure produced by them. The socio-geographical type reflects the influence of socio-geographical space (economic, civilizational, ethnic, etc.) on the characteristics of the geopolitical actor. Activity-related models characterize the interaction process between any geographical factors and the activity of particular geopolitical actors as well as results of such an interaction, i. e. the spatial forms of political phenomena. If such models are applied to several actors, they will overlap and identify common geopolitical regions. Graphical schemes of generalized geopolitical models are presented.

A crucial issue in atmospheric studies on greenhouse gas content involves assessing the representativeness (footprint) having influence on their concentrations measured by tall towers. In this study, the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model was used to estimate seasonal cumulative footprint climatology for greenhouse gases measurements obtained on the 301-meter-high Zotino Tall Tower Observation Facility (ZOTTO) for the growing seasons (May-September) from 2008 to 2012 (with the exception of 2011). Results showed that the ZOTTO seasonal concentration cumulative footprint climatology for four years reached 6.9×10⁶ km² and the 75% cumulative footprints varied from 1.9 to 2.3×10⁶ km². For the same period, the Russian Land Cover map based on MODIS data for 2014 was used to estimate the impact of land cover surrounding the ZOTTO tower on concentration measurements. The analysis showed that in the 75% seasonal cumulative footprint the largest area is occupied by bogs, followed (in decreasing order) by larch, mixed, light-coniferous evergreen forests, grassland, and by other classes. Furthermore, analysis of the contributions from individual cells making up a footprint showed that the largest influence on formation of greenhouse gas concentrations as recorded by ZOTTO comes from the types of vegetation growing in the immediate vicinity of the tall tower, namely bogs, mixed forests, and light and dark coniferous forest stands.

We examined the relationships between the dynamics of surface inflow into Lake Baikal and the runoff of the main tributaries of the Baikal drainage basin and regional and global circulation parameters to determine the role of certain of the meteorological factors in the current low water level within the Baikal catchment area. A decrease or an increase in the runoff of Baikal’s rivers in the summer months depends on the synoptic situation in the south of East Siberia and in the north of Mongolia where southern cyclones provide the main influx of moisture to the Baikal region. We used different indices as climatic and circulation factors which characterize the specific features in the forms of atmospheric circulation in high and low latitudes of the northern hemisphere (NAO, AO, SCAND, and others) as well as the anomalies of mean monthly values of surface pressure and geopotential heights of isobaric surface AT-500 in the zone of 43–50°N and 90–115°E. It was found that the low water level within the Lake Baikal drainage basin has persisted since 1996 but it has manifested itself particularly clearly due to the lake stage reduction. In the south of Siberia and in the north of Mongolia, since the early 21^st century there has been an enhancement in anticyclogenesis processes accompanied by an increase in air temperature, surface pressure and geopotential altitudes at the level of the mid-troposphere (5 km). The more favorable conditions for river runoff formation are created during the development of the ridge of elevated and low pressure over Ural and the associated ridge of low pressure over Siberia, with cyclogenesis processes occurring in front of them over the territory of Mongolia and the south of East Siberia at the Earth’s surface. Elevated precipitation and runoff are observed at the time of blocking anticyclones over Transbaikalia and the Far East, which are responsible for a long-lasting persistence of Mongolian cyclones.

This article deals with spatio-temporal changes in methane emission from the surface of the Mozhaisk reservoir. Seasonal changes in methane content and flux were revealed for different morphological areas of the reservoir, based on field observation data obtained in 2015–2018. In the low-flow Mozhaisk reservoir, the methane content in the boundary and bottom layers of the deep-water areas at the end of the summer stratification period may differ by three orders of magnitude. According to results from measuring with floating chambers in the central area of the reservoir from early June to the end of the period of direct stratification (August–September) the total methane flux increased from less than 1 to 16 mgC-CH₄/(m²/hr). Time-coincident measurements with floating chambers of two types revealed characteristic values of the methane flux components and their change over the sampling period. It was found that at the period of stratification the diffusive flux predominates with the mean values 0.2 mgC-CH₄/(m²/hr). A further increase in the total methane flux is associated with an increase of its bubble component. According to calculations, the diffusive flux reaches its maximum values in late summer in the shallow zone of the reservoir. It is established that a significant increase of the values of the total methane flux is observed when the upper boundary of the oxygen-free zone reaches the lower boundary of the epilimnion. The methane flux density reaches its largest values prior to destruction of the direct stratification. Comparison of field measurements with literature data showed that the magnitude of emission from reservoirs with a slow water exchange in the temperate zone can be underestimated in the evaluation of global methane emission.

The objective of this study is to make an analysis of the natural characteristics of the mountain territories in Southern Siberia as part of the development of the technique for assessing the ecological potential of geosystems by using the central part of the Oka Plateau as an example. A brief description of the relief and exogenous processes is provided for three geomorphological regions: Okinsko-Sorokskii, Okinsko-Tustukskii and Soroksko-Bel’skii, which are characterized by a predominance of flat-topped interfluves, slopes of moderate steepness and deeply incised river valleys. The main features of the climate and hydrological regime in the study area are emphasized. The first ever bathymetrical survey of Lake Sagan-Nur was made, and its morphometric indicators were calculated. On the basis of the morphology and bottom sediments of the lake basin, the genesis of the lake is treated as glaciotectonic. The chemical composition of the waters and the lake bottom sediments were determined, which may well characterize it as a natural unpolluted reservoir. The natural regionalization scheme for the southeastern part of Eastern Sayan is presented. The large-scale landscape map has been compiled for a portion of the central part of the plateau as well as indicating and the main species of vegetation within its boundaries. The identified features in the natural conditions of the study area (relief, climate, surface waters and landscapes) furnish a means of assessing the ecological potential of geosystems. A combination of the nature- and anthropocentric approaches in assessing the ecological potential of geosystems offers considerable scope for optimal use of natural and human resources of this area which sparsely populated but rich in mineral resources. On the plateau, a detailed study of landscapes and their components is crucial to the assessment of the ecological potential of geosystems, although forecasts of the possible enhancement in the influence of the anthropogenic factor and analysis of the consequences of such an influence on the natural environment are also required.

Relationships of the results of the 2016 State Duma election (the share of voters who supported each of the three main political parties) for the federal subjects of Russia with three indicators have been analyzed. The first indicator are the socio-economic phenomena at the regional level. The second indicator refers to the results of the same election at the level of macroregions to which the respective regions belong. The third indicator includes the socio-economic phenomena at the level of macroregions to which the respective regions belong. Four types of regions were identified for each indicator, based on analyzing these correlations. The three indicators and types are all considered as complementary in predicting the electoral behavior of the region’s population. It is concluded that if in a federal subject of Russia the level of support of a political party is higher than the national average and if the set of attributes favoring voting for a given party is relatively well covered, it is a region of stable support of this party. In the event where in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, a political party received fewer votes than the national average, and in the region the set of attributes of the support of a given party is not sufficiently expressed, it is a region of stably decreased support of this party. If a political party in a federal subject of Russia received more votes than the national average, but has a weak set of support factors, this is a region of potential decrease in support for this party. If a political party in a region has received fewer votes than the national average, but the set of factors supporting this party is relatively strong, it is a region of potential increase in support of this party. It has been established that protest-type electoral attitudes are dominant in Eastern Siberia, which implies a widespread occurrence of the stably decreased support of the party of power (United Russia, UR) and the stably increased support of the main opposition parties (Communist Party of the Russian Federation, CPRF, and Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, LDPR). It is found that all regions of Eastern Siberia show coincidences of the types of electoral predisposition for CPRF — LDPR and UR — LDPR.

We examine the debris flow activity in Trans-Ili Alatau since 1900 till the present. Characteristics of the debris flow formation conditions and data on the largest debris flows are presented. A study is made of the interannual and intra-annual variability of debris flow activity. The debris flow activity was characterized by the number of debris flows in a year, and by the total volume of debris transported. For the period from 1900 to 2017 we recorded 481 debris flows. It was found that the genetic types of debris flows are dominated by rain-induced and glacial flows (87 % of the total number of debris flows). The other genetic types (snow-caused, seismogenic and anthropogenic) account for 13%. Most of the debris flows have a rain genesis (71% of the total number of rain-induced and glacial debris flows). Glacial debris flows account for 79% of the volume of debris transported. The volumes of the largest debris flows, both glacial and rain-induced, exceed one million cubic meters. They make up 3% of the total number of debris flows but they transported 70 % of debris. Small debris flows with a volume of less than 10 thousand cubic meters, in terms of their number, constitute 74%; however, they account for a mere 3% of the volume of debris flow deposits. Observations indicate that the earliest debris flows occurred in the second ten-day period of March, and the latest occurred in the first ten-day period of September. The distribution of the number of debris flows according to the dates of their occurrence clearly shows two maxima: one maximum in the second ten-day period of June, and the other maximum in the second ten-day period of July. The June maximum is due to rain precipitation, and the July maximum is associated with glacial debris flows. From 1950 to 2017 there were only 5 (7%) years without any debris flows. Four of them corresponded to the 2010s. The number of years with rain-induced and glacial debris flows was 55 (81%) and 39 (57%), respectively.