Environmental Impact Assessment of Economic Activity: Problems of Modeling and Mapping

Аннотация

A theoretical framework for environmental impact assessment of economic activity is formulated by using methods of mathematical modeling and thematic mapping. Theoretically, environment is considered as a surface of variety (manifold), linking various factors and conditions. Tangential planes to the surface correspond to any natural systems (ecosystems), individual according to their connections with the environment (points of tangency). An example of the display of the environmental variety is provided by landscape-typological maps of a territory. The equation of the plane specifies connections of factor parameters of ecosystems by taking into account their shift relative to environmental coordinates of these reference points. Different types of systemic interpretations of these equations (types of models) are formed with various quantitative criteria for change of in environmental status, such as the measures of responsibility and effectiveness of decisions made. Environmental impact assessment methods generally estimate changes in the state of natural systems rather than the transformation of their environment. Therefore, methods of distinguishing relevant indicators and selecting the characteristic features of their controlled changes are suggested. The antisymmetry of variability and stability is naturally discernible from the factors and conditions of economic activity, which is demonstrated by modeling the impact of economic processes on the environmental status: an assessment was made of the influence of the size of gross regional product on amounts of atmospheric emissions of pollutants as well as of waste water discharges on human health. The findings can be used in developing methods of mathematical modeling of the relationships between the ecological, economic and social blocks of territorial systems in order to solve problems of thematic mapping and seek optimal solutions in the field of environmental management.