Email this article Study of Weather and Climate Predictability at Seasonal Time Scales with Climate Model of INM RAS
- Authors: Volodin E.M.1, Vorobyeva V.V.1, Tarasevich M.A.1
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Affiliations:
- Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS
- Issue: Vol 118, No 3-4 (2023): ТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЙ БЛОК: ФУНДАМЕНТАЛЬНЫЕ НАУЧНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ В ОБЛАСТИ ЕСТЕСТВЕННЫХ НАУК
- Pages: 32-44
- Section: THEMED SECTION: FUNDAMENTAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN THE FIELD OF NATURAL SCIENCES
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1605-8070/article/view/301845
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.22204/2410-4639-2023-119-120-03-04-32-44
- ID: 301845
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Abstract
Prediction system of seasonal weather and climate anomalies is developed on the basis of INM RAS climate model. The model includes block of atmospheric dynamics with surface and soil model, block of ocean and sea ice dynamics, and aerosol block. Initial states were generated as anomalies of atmospheric, oceanic and ice states derived from reanalysis added to model climatology. Simulation of weather anomalies in December–February and June–August, 1980–2014 was considered. It is shown that model is capable to reproduce anomalies of winter and summer seasons, including anomalies associated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA). The quality of seasonal forecasts with developed prediction system is close to the quality of other present day seasonal prediction systems. Operative simulations of weather anomalies in June–August, 2022, are considered. It is possible to use successfully the prediction system in operative regime.
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About the authors
Evgeny M. Volodin
Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS
Author for correspondence.
Email: volodinev@gmail.com
Russian Federation, 8 Gubkina Str., Moscow, 119333, Russia
Vasilisa V. Vorobyeva
Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS
Email: VVorobyeva@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, 8 Gubkina Str., Moscow, 119333, Russia
Maria A. Tarasevich
Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS
Email: mashatarasevich@gmail.com
Russian Federation, 8 Gubkina Str., Moscow, 119333, Russia
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