Scenario Prediction of Dynamics of Interest Rates and Internal Credit Volume in Russia for 2018−2022

Resumo

This article proposes a model of internal credit driven by variations in interest rates of loans for end borrowers. The variations in internal credit after the interest rate crises that have taken place around the world in recent years are analyzed by international panel comparison, and the median elasticity is evaluated. A prediction of internal credit variations in Russia in the near future is given in light of various scenarios of interest rate fluctuations.