Том 30, № 4 (2019)
- Жылы: 2019
- Мақалалар: 15
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1075-7007/issue/view/13347
Macroeconomic Problems
Russian High-Technology Complex under Low Inflation and Government Support Limitation: The Condition, Capacity and Tendencies for Development
Аннотация
The article aims to reconstruct and analyze the development trends of the Russian high-tech complex in 2011–2017. The main goal is to assess the development potential of the high-tech complex in 2018–2020 taking into consideration the state defense order financing, export supplies of weapons and military equipment, as well as civil output of the defense and nuclear industries. The findings showed that until 2014 the growth rates of the defense complex approximately correspond to official data, whereas in 2016–2017 there was a turnaround as in some subsectors the real growth was significantly lower than expected. It enables us to predict that the preservation of the current economic policy in the field of defense and security may lead to a reduction in the high-tech complex output from 2020. Meanwhile, it appears that at the moment there are no macroeconomic limitations that would hinder the positive dynamics continuation of the high-tech complex development provided changes in economic policy.
Institutional Rent in a Multilevel Economy
Аннотация
At least a three-level hierarchy of sectors in the Russian economy, which has formed over the past 15–20 years, is justified. Significant differences in their institutional conditions lead to the formation of an institutional rent that allows sectors of higher hierarchical levels gain additional incomes. The origins of the institutional rent, factors of its increase, and channels of appropriation are determined. It is shown that the “discrimination” of some sectors by other sectors is stable and has serious downsides for each sector, as well as for the entire Russian economy. Approaches to quantitative estimates of the significance of effects associated with the discrimination of institutional conditions in the highlighted sectors of the Russian economy and recommendations to level out the negative effect of this institutional heterogeneity on economic growth will be given in the following articles.1
Industries and Interindustry Complexes
Potential Trajectories of Oil Price Dynamics
Аннотация
Main Aspects of Regional Food Security in Russia
Аннотация
The article studies the methodological problems of determining regional food security and shows the risks of abusing this concept by including in it the condition of the regional food self-sufficiency. It is proved that the regional agriculture development programs must be coordinated on the federal level.
Development Strategies of the aIr Transport Services Market
Аннотация
The paper analyzes trends and prospects of the global and Russian air transport services (ATS) market. The characteristic features of modern processes in the ATS market are noted. In particular, the increased concentration in transportation and ground handling services, which led to the adoption of the hub model by the industry, and the emergence of a unified global system of air services. The place of Russia in this system, the causes and consequences of lagging behind global trends, and the development strategies of the domestic air services market, which contribute to its integration into global processes, are presented.
Economy and Ecology
The Effect of Climate Change on the Location of Branches of Agriculture in Russia
Аннотация
The article provides an assessment of the expected changes in the location of agricultural sectors affected by possible climate change, which is simulated by the displacement of natural and agricultural zones within production frontiers of Federal subjects. The spatial distribution of resources, efficiency of agricultural production, transport flows, demand and comparative competitive positions of individual sectors of agriculture are taken into account.
Social Problems
Dynamics of Social Spending in the Draft Federal Budget of Russia for 2019–2021
Аннотация
The article analyzes the draft budget of Russia for 2019–2021 from the standpoint of the implementation of the commitments of the authorities in the social sphere. The indicators of the projected growth of personal incomes of the population and branches of socially significant services are considered. Comparisons are made of the current level of development of the social sector in Russia and in developed countries. The data of the consolidated budget are given, which, unlike the federal budget, includes extrabudgetary funds (Pension, Social Insurance, Medical) and social expenditures of the regions—the latter envisage the main expenditures on education and health care—the most important branches of social services.
Insurance Pension Reform: Strategic Challenges and Tactical Risks
Аннотация
The article presents the results of an actuarial statistical study of external macroeconomic and demographic factors in the development of the pension system in Russia based on insurance principles determined by market, social and labor relations. It is shown why measures for pension reform aimed at solving local (tactical) problems by the parametric adjustment of individual segments in the pension system prove inefficient without taking into account the synergy effect and the impact made by the macroeconomic and demographic conditions of the long-term socio-economic development of the country [1, 2]. It is proved that the effectiveness of the pension system should be assessed based on the success rate in meeting strategic targets such as a decent standard of living for pensioners and the long-term sustainability of the pension system.
Improvement of the Housing Conditions of the Population: Challenges of Achieving the National Goal
Аннотация
The article considers topical economic aspects of the development of the housing market as a sector of the national economy and complex socioeconomic system, specifically, financial mechanism of economic reproduction (formation of effective demand) in the housing market; expansion of economic and legal definitions of housing commissioning, improvement in housing conditions, and acquisition of dwelling, and the impact that dynamics of return on urban residential development has on sustainability of market functioning. Inferences and suggestions are formulated with respect to attainability of the national goal of an improvement in the housing situation of at least five million families annually, which was established by the May decree (ukase) of the President of the Russian Federation.
Analysis and Forecast of Russian Housing Stock Based on New Data Sources
Аннотация
The article offers approaches to assess the age distribution of housing stock and develop scenario-based forecasting for housing stock changes in terms of volume and quality characteristics based on fundamentally new high granularity data (multifamily residential database, My Building). The approach allows for a refined assessment of the current condition of the state of the housing stock at the national and subject levels of the Russian Federation. Based on the estimated forecast for housing stock decommissioning and specified value of target housing per capita parameter, we assessed the need for new housing construction volume. The results can be used to work out a development strategy in the housing sphere.
On the Application of Forecasting Methods for a Sustainable Reduction in Uninhabitable Residential Housing Stock
Аннотация
The article reviews methods and approaches applied to reduce uninhabitable (decrepit and dilapidated) housing stock. It points out a gap in practice with respect to forecasting a transition of housing to a category of decrepit and dilapidated and justifies a necessity to implement the novel integrated approach.
Regional Problems
Budget Potential of Municipal Entities: Assessment and Directions for Development (on the Example of Vologda Oblast)
Аннотация
In the article, the theoretical and methodological aspects of investigation of the territories’ budget potential have been systematized. The methodology of comparative assessment of municipal entities’ budget potential has been developed, their ranking on the base of an integral index has been carried out, and a comprehensive assessment of the territories’ potential has been obtained. The assessment of the budget potential of municipalities has been carried out on the basis of the developed methodology on the example of Vologda oblast. The model of financial support for the functioning of a settlement network with due consideration of the level of budget potential of municipal raions has been justified.
Problems of Balancing Supply and Demand in the Labor Market of the Republic of Mari El
Аннотация
The article analyzes the structure of employment in the economy of the Republic of Mari El. On the basis of monitoring the supply and demand of labor, such positive trends are shown as a high degree of employment of graduates of educational organizations, and an increase in the proportion of citizens who have opened their own business. Against this background, negative dynamics of employment, the growth of general unemployment, the imbalance of the vocational cut of vacancies and the vocational qualification structure of the unemployed were revealed. A scheme has been proposed for forecasting measures to implement the state employment policy, achieve a balance between the labor market and the educational services market, develop nonprimary and high-tech industries, reduce incomplete and informal employment, and increase the accessibility of public services.
Features and Problems of the Forestry Sector Development in the Republic of Mari El
Аннотация
The article discusses the conceptual framework for forestry policy. Monitoring of indicators of the forestry sector of the Republic of Mari El, rates of natural and artificial reforestation, foci of forest destruction with fires, emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere, etc., are presented. General principles and main directions of development of the forest industry are presented.
Foreign Economic Relations
The Export Potential of the Russian Economy: Targets and State Policy Requirements
Аннотация
The feasibility of the state-posed task of export expansion is assessed. An increase in noncommodity nonenergy exports is considered in terms of calculation methodology, price factors, demand, supply, and the available transportation infrastructure. It has been established that the cost indicator of exports limits economic policy options and strengthens dependences between its components. It is necessary to change the makeup of industrial development in the next two-to-three years.