Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Access granted  Restricted Access Subscription Access

Vol 27, No 6 (2016)

Economic Policy

Scientific and technological dimensions of the macrostructural forecast

Shirov A.A., Gusev M.S., Sayapova A.R., Yantovskiy A.A.

Abstract

This paper explores possible approaches to quantifying the relationship between expenditures on research and development and economic development. The mechanisms that underpin the transfer of scientific results via the imports of final products, goods, and services have been analyzed. The impact of total R&D costs on the dynamic and structural characteristics of economic development are investigated. The level of R&D costs, which is required in the medium term in order to pursue the constructive scenario for the development of the Russian economy, has been estimated.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):611-620
pages 611-620 views

Regional Problems

Organizational issues of expert review and evaluation of macroregional development projects in Russia

Leksin V.N., Porfiryev B.N.

Abstract

Abstract—This article identifies particular characteristics of expert appraisal of projects included in macroregional development programs. These features are determined by uniqueness of these administrative-territorial entities, which is exemplified by the Russian Arctic Zone. This article also analyzes the potential of organizing expert appraisals (first of all, government expert appraisals) in Russia for use when analyzing and assessing Arctic projects. The basic guidelines and provisions are substantiated with regard to organizing an expert appraisal of the project component of development projects for the Russian Arctic Zone and other Russian macroregions.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):621-628
pages 621-628 views

Assessment of Russian aviation development for long-term prospects with the regard for Arctic developing: reproductive and technological aspects

Frolov I.E.

Abstract

The article considers the conditions of developing the aviation industry for long-term prospects taking into account factors such as changes in purchasing aviation equipment, progress in developing the Russian aviation market, and works for reconstructing and modernizing transport infrastructure in the Russian Arctic. The author aims to coordinate the Government programs for developing new aviation equipment and equipment for air transport via the program of Arctic Exploration and Development, as it is necessary to integrate various cycle flows with regard to high-tech capital.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):629-637
pages 629-637 views

Monitoring economic security in the region based on indicators of sustainable development

Kazakova N.A., Bolvachev A.I., Gendon A.L., Golubeva G.F.

Abstract

The paper proposes a system of indicators, i.e., economic security indicators of the region, the monitoring of which will allow to control the situation, and correct the state of economic security in the region in a timely manner. The assessments of prospects for the industrial development in the region have been given. Options for business strategies and a complex of measures of regulatory control aimed at forming value chains that enable redistribution for regional producers have been proposed.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):638-648
pages 638-648 views

Industries and Interindustry Complexes

Rational aggregation of territory in long-term forecasting of energy prices

Kononov D.Y., Kononov Y.D.

Abstract

A phased approach to the rational aggregation of territory and objects with respect to the solved problem and controversy of the initial data has been considered in the article using the example of forecasting energy prices in Russia’s macroregions. The results of an estimate of the influence of regional specifics and nature of uncertainty of used information on the probable inaccuracy of forecasts and aggregation errors.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):649-655
pages 649-655 views

A medium-term forecast of crude oil buyers’ prices

Kossov V.V.

Abstract

This paper describes the forecasting of crude oil prices for the next years. This forecast is essential to strategic investors' understanding of the price at which it will be possible to sell the goods in which they have invested.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):656-663
pages 656-663 views

Labor and Employment

Forecasting the dynamics of demand for high-tech products of industrial companies

Putilov A.V., Kudeshova S.G.

Abstract

The article examines problems of forecasting the high-tech product market based on statistical modeling. The results of studying a number of Russian companies for 15 years and forecasting the demand for telecom services have been presented.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):664-668
pages 664-668 views

Economic crises and unemployment in Russia

Pogosov I.A., Sokolovskaya E.A.

Abstract

This article considers changes in the number of unemployed individuals in conjunction with the dynamics of the production volume in Russia in 1991–2015. An assessment has been given for the quantitative relationship between crisis declines in production and the number of unemployed individuals. Long-term trends determining the dynamics of unemployment under the effect of direct factors of economic growth (labor resources, fixed capital, and scientific and technical progress) have been analyzed.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):669-675
pages 669-675 views

Current trends in Germany’s social policy in employment and unemployment

Lorents O.Y.

Abstract

This paper deals with problems of the institutional crisis in employment policy and consequences of institutional reforms of P. Hartz in 2003–2005 in Germany, which affected the labor market and the social state. It has been shown that the reforms resulted in the radical restructuring of employment and unemployment and that, for all positive results of Hartz reforms, the problem of long-term unemployment and development of the informal employment sector still persists, which raises the question of reforming the professional training of highly qualified personnel.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):676-679
pages 676-679 views

Forecast of qualitative and quantitative characteristics of external labor migration in Russia using foresight

Pitukhina M.A.

Abstract

This paper provides a long-term forecast of the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the external labor migration in Russia up to 2050. The author appeals to the unique experience of the United Kingdom in migration forecasting using foresight. The author has proposed a mini-foresight methodology, which made it possible to identify global trends that affect migration policy in the future, and has systematized peer reviews of the future migration background in Russia up to 2050.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):680-682
pages 680-682 views

Social Problems

Social entrepreneurship in the system of social policy: International experience and prospects of Russia

Moskovskaya A.A., Soboleva I.V.

Abstract

The article deals with a relatively new phenomenon for Russia, i.e., social entrepreneurship. Based on an analysis of international experience in the development of social enterprises, their characteristics have been studied, the advantages and risks in support of social enterprise in meeting the social needs have been revealed, and the problems and prospects of development of social entrepreneurship in Russia have been discussed.

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2016;27(6):683-688
pages 683-688 views