Relation of Uncertainty in Fluctuations of Energy Commodity Demand and Prices to Forecasting Timeframe

Abstract

Several Russian and foreign forecasts of energy industry development have been analyzed that were made in various years for up to 20–25 years. The extent and type of temporal variations in uncertainty ranges of forecast indexes in Russia and worldwide have been studied. The indexes include fluctuations of energy commodity prices, electricity and fuel production and consumption, etc. The calculated data have been given. The relations of uncertainty ranges of different indexes to the change in the considered timeframe have been constructed.