Cold waves in southern cities of European Russia and premature mortality

Abstract

The results of the next stage of works for assessing the effects of temperature waves on mortality indicators have been presented. The danger of cold waves for the public health in Southern cities of European Russia has been evaluated. Cold waves with duration of 5–20 days, during which the air temperature was below the threshold value determined based on the probability characteristics of the multi-year distribution of daily average temperatures in each city, have been studied. The cold thresholds were equal to (–12.6°C in Volgograd,–9.4°C in Rostov-on-Don and Astrakhan’, and–4.4°C in Krasnodar). The premature mortality rates per 100000 people in the population per year caused by cold waves in Southern cities of Russia were calculated. A meta analysis of risks by the four Southern cities showed statistically significant results almost for all the studied causes of death; the highest values of risk were determined for diseases of the circulatory system for individuals aged 65 and older.