Inforum models: Origin, evolution and byways avoided

Abstract

Inforum models have been built and used in a number of countries including the USA, Russia, Germany, Poland, Latvia, Austria, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom², South Africa, Mexico, Colombia, China, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam and perhaps others. They make extensive use of econometrics and input-output analysis to describe the functioning of an economy not only at a macroeconomic level but also at the level of individual products and industries. I want to record–somewhat autobiographically—the beginnings of these models, outline their evolution, defend them and other econometric models against the sweeping Lucas critique, and mention some of the fads in economics and modeling which have been avoided for good reason.