On the possibility of using the tidal modulation of seismic waves for forecasting earthquakes

Аннотация

The earthquake forecasting technique based on the effect of the modulation of high frequency seismic noise (HFSN) by the Earth’s tides is discussed and the experience of its practical application in Kamchatka is described based on the extensive measurement data for 1996–2013. The empirical development of the lower magnitude threshold on the epicentral distance is refined. The reliability and validity of the precursor are assessed. The efficiency of the precursor is estimated in two ways. It is shown that the results of applying the prognostic procedure statistically significantly differ from a random guess. The presented estimates are based on the catalog containing 68 earthquakes of 1996–2013 in the predicted magnitude interval M ≥ 5.0 at the epicentral distances that are linked to the magnitude by functional dependence.