


Volume 55, Nº 5 (2019)
- Ano: 2019
- Artigos: 10
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1069-3513/issue/view/13849
Article
Estimates of Lithospheric Failure Cycle Parameters from Regional Earthquake Catalogues
Resumo
Abstract—Based on the generalized frequency–magnitude relation for earthquakes, the failure cycle parameters are estimated from regional seismic catalogues for zones with different typical tectonic regimes: subduction zones and shear fault zones. The Kamchatka and Japan catalogues are used for the subduction zones. The estimates for the shear fault zones are based on the data for the San-Andreas Fault presented in the Northern California Earthquake Catalog, the data for the North Anatolian fault presented in the earthquake catalogue for Greece, and the data for the Zagros shear zone presented in the catalogue for Iran. Distribution maps are constructed for the failure cycle duration and for parameter \(q\) characterizing the dependence of the duration of the failure cycle on the size of the fractured area. It is shown that on average for each region, the \(q\) values are close to zero, indicating that the probability of failure for structural elements of the medium does not depend on their size and that the strength and stress distributions by size of inhomogeneities are, on average, consistent with each other. The intraregional spatial variations of parameter \(q\) exceed the statistical error of the estimates, which can be interpreted as evidence for the existence of variations in the distribution of stresses by size of inhomogeneities. The intensities of these variations estimated under Zhurkov’s kinetic concept of fracture of solids are comparable to the stresses released by earthquakes. The statistical range of regional variations in the duration of the failure cycle is about two orders of magnitude; the durations are inversely proportional to the region-mean velocities of relative plate motions along the fault zones. This indicates that the durations of the failure cycle are mainly determined by the velocities of tectonic deformations. The significant scatter in the failure cycle duration values within regions testifies to the substantially heterogeneous intraregional distribution of the strain rates and strength, which is consistent with up-to-date notions of the hierarchical nature of a geological medium and mosaicity of the stress field.



Forecasting Aftershock Activity: 5. Estimating the Duration of a Hazardous Period
Resumo
Continuing the series of publications on aftershock hazard assessment, we consider the problem of estimating the time interval after a strong earthquake that is prone to aftershocks which may pose an independent hazard. The distribution model of this quantity, which depends on three parameters of the Omori–Utsu law, is constructed. With the appropriate averaged parameter estimates, the model fairly closely fits the real (empirical) distributions of this quantity on the global and regional scale. A key parameter in the model is the expected number of aftershocks of a given magnitude. This number broadly varies from earthquake-to-earthquake, which determines the wide confidence variant of the estimates based on the averaged parameters. Therefore, for forecasting the duration of the hazardous aftershock-prone period, we propose to use two variants of the estimates. The first variant is based only on the averaged parameter estimates for the region under study and on the value of the magnitude of the earthquake. This variant is applicable immediately after a strong earthquake. The second variant employs information about the aftershocks that occurred during the first few hours after an earthquake, which improves the forecast considerably.



Declustering of Seismicity Flow: Statistical Analysis
Resumo
The known methods for identifying the clusters of seismic events that are mainly formed by the aftershocks frequently include debatable initial assumptions or a complicated system of successive approximations. One of the most recent and the most logically consistent methods for identifying clusters of aftershocks is the nearest neighbor distance (NND) method, which is however algorithmically most challenging. In this paper, we propose a new declustering method based on a generalized distance (GD) metric, which employs some assumptions of the NDD method but is as simple in practical implementation as the window methods previously proposed for this purpose. In analyzing and substantiating this new method, a procedure of random shuffling of seismic events with respect to time is used for generating a real catalog, which is however free of genetic relationships between different events. The efficiency of the existing window methods, the GD method, and the NND methods is compared by a number of the criteria for 17 regions. It is shown that the GD method is, on average, noticeably more efficient than the standard window methods and compares very favorably with the NND method. In the conclusions, a certain speculativeness of separating the events into the main and dependent shocks is discussed.



Problems of the Joint Inversion of Temporal Gravity Variations with the Data on Land and Seafloor Displacements: a Case Study of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of March 11, 2011
Resumo
The methodology for the joint inversion of various types of data on the Tohoku-Oki earthquake is presented. It is shown that satellite geodetic (GPS) data, results of SAR interferometry, and coseismic GRACE gravity anomalies are overall fairly consistent with each other. However, the resolution of these data is not high and the rupture surface model based on them is smoothed. Meanwhile, the measured and calculated data agree well, which creates the illusion that the resulting solution is close to the real process. The solution of the inverse problem using also the ocean bottom station displacements shows that the rupture surface models based on the measurement data on land and/or GRACE gravity anomalies alone may significantly differ from the real coseismic displacement field. If the rupture surface is specified inaccurately, then the high quality of data fitting and the checkerboard test do not guarantee highly accurate solution. A similar situation is also observed in estimating the degree of locking along the plate contact within locked segments of the subduction zone. In the paper it is underlined that the accuracy of the inverse problem solution mostly depends on how closely the geodynamic model fits the real process. For increasing the accuracy and degree of detail of the solution, the physics of the coseismic and post-seismic process need to be more adequately described in parallel with developing a more detailed description of the geological structure of a rupture area with allowance for the discontinuities of the medium and a more detailed description of the distribution of the physical parameters.



Induced Deformations of Fault Zones
Resumo
Empirical data obtained by studying the Earth’s surface deformations in the fault zones induced by exogenous, endogenous, and manmade processes are presented. It is suggested to analyze induced deformations in the fault zones caused by different factors using a unified approach based on the notions of parametric excitation of processes. Two variants (types) of the formation of induced phenomena are considered. In the first variant, deformational response of faults occurs linearly when an influence directly causes a fault to deform. The second variant is a nonlinear parametric amplifier when the deformational response of a fault zone is anomalously high and induced (excited) by small influences. In accordance with this approach, definitions are given of exogenously induced, endogenously induced, and technology-induced deformations of the fault zones. The examples are presented when both scenarios of process formation, e.g., exogenous and exogenously-induced surface deformations, are simultaneously observed within a single measurement system.



Joint Perturbation in Geoacoustic Emission, Radon, Thoron, and Atmospheric Electric Field Based on Observations in Kamchatka
Resumo
Based on the integration and analysis of the published theoretical results and field observations, the possibility is considered of a joint perturbation in geoacoustic emission, radon, thoron, and the atmospheric electric field before an earthquake. A scheme is proposed for the formation of this perturbation in the presence of near-surface sedimentary rocks at the observation point and their extension. In order to detect such a perturbation, simultaneous measurements of geoacoustic emission, radon, thoron, and the atmospheric electric field were carried out for the first time in Kamchatka in summer and autumn 2012–2013, and the joint anomalous perturbation in these parameters was recorded.



Study of Similarity between Blocking Temperature Spectra of Chemical and Thermoremanent Magnetizations by Computer Simulation
Resumo
Monte Carlo numerical simulation of the formation of chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) by the mechanism of the growth of volumes from superparamagnetic (SPM) to single-domain (SD) in the ensembles of magnetostatically interacting particles, thermoremanent magnetization (TRM), and experiments on determining paleointensity by the Thellier–Coe and Wilson–Burakov methods are carried out. The obtained results agree with the Smirnov–Tarduno hypothesis (Smirnov and Tarduno, 2005) that the similarity of the spectra of blocking temperatures Tb of CRM and TRM can be due to the narrowness of the interval of the blocking temperatures Tb of CRM and TRM, with the reservation that the similarity can be observed on part of the total interval of the Tb spectrum provided that this interval accommodates a significant fraction of the total CRM intensity. The analytical examination of the case of non-interacting particles (sparse concentration of grains) shows that in this case, the (quasi-)linearity of the Arai–Nagata diagrams is due to the presence of a plateau on the curves of the derivative dCRM/dpTRM (pTRM is partial thermoremanent magnetization) which emerges in a narrow spectrum of blocking temperatures. The results of the numerical experiments suggest that at a particle concentration of above 0.2% magnetostatic interaction leads to the practically full linearity of the Arai–Nagata diagram over a significant interval of the total spectrum of blocking temperatures for CRM. At the same time, on the remaining temperature interval, both the Arai–Nagata diagrams and the CRM(TRM) curves are substantially concave, indicating the lack of similarity between the spectra of blocking temperatures for CRM and TRM. The analysis of the empirical data revealed their resemblance, up to a certain point, to the results of simulation but at the same time clearly demonstrated the noticeable distinction between them, associated with the significant differences in the conditions of the numerical and laboratory experiments.



Infrasound Strain Perturbations Caused by Typhoons
Resumo



Meteotsunami Manifestations in Geospheres
Resumo
The results of processing synchronous records from two laser strainmeters, a broadband seismograph, a laser nanobarograph, and a laser meter of hydrospheric pressure variations are discussed. It is established that the sharp change in the atmospheric pressure, which was recorded by a laser nanobarograph, resulted in the generation of solitary waves in the hydrosphere detected by the laser meter of hydrosphere pressure variations. These waves were accompanied by intense deformational perturbations with periods of about 2–2.5 min observed by the laser strainmeters and broadband seismograph. The identification of this phenomenon as a meteotsunami is supported by the subsequent arrival of powerful 1.5-h oscillations in the zone of the location of instrumental complexes, which were recorded by the laser nanobarograph and laser strainmeter.



Errors of Earth Gravity Models as Depending on Seafloor Morphology
Resumo
Abstract—The empirical results on estimating the resolution and high-frequency noise in the Earth’s gravity models are presented. The Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences participated in a marine gravity survey in the Indian Ocean. Based on the survey data, gravity maps were constructed for ten regions with a total of 611 986 gravimetric points. The root mean square measurement error is at most 0.27 mGal. The differences between measured gravity and predictions by the EGM2008 gravity model are calculated. The statistical processing of the differences shows that they vary from –25 to 44 mGal on the shelf and from –7.4 to 6.2 mGal on the abyssal plain with a root mean square value of 1.33 mGal. The results of the survey indicate that the anomalies in the ultra-high-degree model can only be used for constructing gravity maps on the scale of 1 : 500 000 or smaller.


