Vol 52, No 2 (2016)

Based on the analysis of the world’s earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 6.5 for 1960–2013, it is shown that they cause global-scale coherent seismic oscillations which most distinctly manifest themselves in the period interval of 4–6 min during 1–3 days after the event. After these earthquakes, a repeated shock has an increased probability to occur in different seismically active regions located as far away as a few thousand km from the previous event, i.e., a remote interaction of seismic events takes place. The number of the repeated shocks N(t) decreases with time, which characterizes the memory of the lithosphere about the impact that has occurred. The time decay N(t) can be approximated by the linear, exponential, and powerlaw dependences. No distinct correlation between the spatial locations of the initial and repeated earthquakes is revealed. The probable triggering mechanisms of the remote interaction between the earthquakes are discussed. Surface seismic waves traveling several times around the Earth’s, coherent oscillations, and global source are the most preferable candidates. This may lead to the accumulation and coalescence of ruptures in the highly stressed or weakened domains of a seismically active region, which increases the probability of a repeated earthquake.

Spatiotemporal mapping the minimum magnitude of completeness Mc and b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law is conducted for the earthquake catalog data of Greece. The data were recorded by the seismic network of the Institute of Geodynamics of the National Observatory of Athens (GINOA) in 1970–2010 and by the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN) in 2011–2014. It is shown that with the beginning of the measurements at HUSN, the number of the recorded events more than quintupled. The magnitude of completeness Mc of the earthquake catalog for 1970–2010 varies within 2.7 to 3.5, whereas starting from April 2011 it decreases to 1.5–1.8 in the central part of the region and fluctuates around the average of 2.0 in the study region overall. The magnitude of completeness Mc and b-value for the catalogs of the earthquakes recorded by the old (GINOA) and new (HUSN) seismic networks are compared. It is hypothesized that the magnitude of completeness Mc may affect the b-value estimates. The spatial distribution of the b-value determined from the HUSN catalog data generally agrees with the main geotectonic features of the studied territory. It is shown that the b-value is below 1 in the zones of compression and is larger than or equal to 1 in the zones dominated by extension. The established depth dependence of the b-value is pretty much consistent with the hypothesis of a brittle–ductile transition zone existing in the Earth’s crust. It is assumed that the source depth of a strong earthquake can probably be estimated from the depth distribution of the b-value, which can be used for seismic hazard assessment.

We carried out archaeoseismological studies in the Southern Issyk-Kul region (Kyrgyz Tien Shan) and obtained radiocarbon datings of the collected samples. These data suggest that the sources of strong earthquakes have occurred in this territory in the 11th and (probably) 16th centuries. These earthquakes had magnitude M ≥ 7 and seismic intensity of at least I ≥ 9. The sources of these earthquakes were associated with the local adyr (piedmont) faults—components of the Pre-Terskei border fault. Our results demonstrate considerable underestimation of the seismic hazard for the South Issyk-Kul region in the latest Seismic Zoning Map of Kyrgyz Republic (2012), which should be taken into account in the construction of the new seismic zoning map for Kyrgyzstan.

A new approach is suggested for solving the inverse problems that arise in the different fields of applied geophysics (gravity, magnetic, and electrical prospecting, geothermy) and require assessing the spatial region occupied by the anomaly-generating masses in the presence of different types of a priori information. The interpretation which provides the maximum guaranteed proximity of the model field sources to the real perturbing object is treated as the best interpretation. In some fields of science (game theory, economics, operations research), the decision-making principle that lies in minimizing the probable losses which cannot be prevented if the situation develops by the worst-case scenario is referred to as minimax. The minimax criterion of choice is interesting as, instead of being confined to the indirect (and sometimes doubtful) signs of the “optimal” solution, it relies on the actual properties of the information in the results of a particular interpretation. In the hierarchy of the approaches to the solution of the inverse problems of geophysics ordered by the volume and quality of the retrieved information about the sources of the field, the minimax approach should take special place.

The problem of the algorithmic recognition of anomalous time intervals in the time series of the sea-level observations conducted by the Russian Tsunami Warning Survey (RTWS) is considered. The normal and anomalous sea-level observations are described. The polyharmonic models describing the sea-level fluctuations on the short time intervals are constructed, and sea-level forecasting based on these models is suggested. The algorithm for the recognition of anomalous time intervals is developed and its work is tested on the real RTWS data.

The data that describe the long-term reversing behavior of the geodynamo show strong and sudden changes in magnetic reversal frequency. This concerns both the onset and the end of superchrons and most probably the occurrence of episodes characterized by extreme geomagnetic reversal frequency (>10–15 rev./Myr). To account for the complexity observed in geomagnetic reversal frequency evolution, we propose a simple scenario in which the geodynamo operates in three distinct reversing modes: i—a “normal” reversing mode generating geomagnetic polarity reversals according to a stationary random process, with on average a reversal rate of ∼3 rev./Myr; ii—a non-reversing “superchron” mode characterizing long time intervals without reversal; iii—a hyper-active reversing mode characterized by an extreme geomagnetic reversal frequency. The transitions between the different reversing modes would be sudden, i.e., on the Myr time scale. Following previous studies, we suggest that in the past, the occurrence of these transitions has been modulated by thermal conditions at the core-mantle boundary governed by mantle dynamics. It might also be possible that they were more frequent during the Precambrian, before the nucleation of the inner core, because of a stronger influence on geodynamo activity of the thermal conditions at the core-mantle boundary.

In this paper, we suggest a technique for forecasting seismic events based on the very low and low frequency (VLF and LF) signals in the 10 to 50 Hz band using the neural network approach, specifically, the error back-propagation method (EBPM). In this method, the solution of the problem has two main stages: training and recognition (forecasting). The training set is constructed from the combined data, including the amplitudes and phases of the VLF/LF signals measured in the monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka region and the corresponding parameters of regional seismicity. Training the neural network establishes the internal relationship between the characteristic changes in the VLF/LF signals a few days before a seismic event and the corresponding level of seismicity. The trained neural network is then applied in a prognostic mode for automated detection of the anomalous changes in the signal which are associated with seismic activity exceeding the assumed threshold level. By the example of several time intervals in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, we demonstrate the efficiency of the neural network approach in the short-term forecasting of earthquakes with magnitudes starting from M ≥ 5.5 from the nighttime variations in the amplitudes and phases of the LF signals on one radio path. We also discuss the results of the simultaneous analysis of the VLF/LF data measured on two partially overlapping paths aimed at revealing the correlations between the nighttime variations in the amplitude of the signal and seismic activity.

The problem of energy paradoxes revealed in geoelectrics are discussed. The experimental facts illustrating the anomalous energy characteristics of the magnetotelluric (MT) field are presented. An attempt is made to interpret these anomalies from the standpoint of directional analysis. Two three-layer models corresponding to the situation |Q| > 1 and \(\widetilde {{S_z}} < 0\) are found by the numerical modeling. The possibility of accounting for the observed paradoxes within the resonance model “heterogeneous plane wave—layered medium” is discussed.