Formalized clustering and significant earthquake-prone areas in the Crimean Peninsula and Northwest Caucasus

Abstract

With the use of the modified version of the original algorithmic Formalized Clustering and Zoning (FCAZ) system, the areas prone to the probable emergence of the epicenters of significant earthquakes are recognized in the joint region of the Crimea and western part of the Northern Caucasus. The selection of this region is justified by the tectonic structure and the presence of the active junction zone of the meganticlinoria. The reliability of the obtained recognition is substantiated by the comparative analysis of the actual and random FCAZ-recognition. For the first time, the problem of recognizing the locations of the probable emergence of the earthquakes' epicenters is solved for two different magnitude thresholds. This allows us to interpret the areas prone to the probable emergence of the epicenters of significant earthquakes as fuzzy sets.