Estimating the level of territory vulnerability and climate-related risk of significant grain crop failure in grain-producing regions of Russia


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A term ofclimate-related risk ofcrop losses due to adverse hydrometeorological conditions is introduced. The level of territory vulnerability in terms ofcrop production is defined by the relationship between the yield of a given crop and the bioclimatic potential of a territory. The estimates of vulnerability and crop failure risks for some grain crops are presented for the period of 1994–2013. Average for Russia crop failure risk for spring and winter wheat computed taking into account the cultivated areas is 12.5 and 10.6%, respectively. It is revealed that the most parts of the Southern and Volga federal districts are located in the high-risk zone. Areas ofrelatively low risks in terms ofcrop failure for spring and winter wheat are the Siberian and Central federal districts.

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V. Pavlova

Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory; All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: vnp2003@bk.ru
俄罗斯联邦, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194021; pr. Lenina 82, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249020

S. Varcheva

All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology

Email: vnp2003@bk.ru
俄罗斯联邦, pr. Lenina 82, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249020

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