Estimating the level of territory vulnerability and climate-related risk of significant grain crop failure in grain-producing regions of Russia

Abstract

A term ofclimate-related risk ofcrop losses due to adverse hydrometeorological conditions is introduced. The level of territory vulnerability in terms ofcrop production is defined by the relationship between the yield of a given crop and the bioclimatic potential of a territory. The estimates of vulnerability and crop failure risks for some grain crops are presented for the period of 1994–2013. Average for Russia crop failure risk for spring and winter wheat computed taking into account the cultivated areas is 12.5 and 10.6%, respectively. It is revealed that the most parts of the Southern and Volga federal districts are located in the high-risk zone. Areas ofrelatively low risks in terms ofcrop failure for spring and winter wheat are the Siberian and Central federal districts.