Occurence Frequency of Storm Wind Waves in the Baltic, Black, and Caspian Seas under Changing Climate Conditions
- 作者: Arkhipkin V.1, Kislov A.1, Surkova G.1
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隶属关系:
- Lomonosov Moscow State University
- 期: 卷 41, 编号 2 (2016)
- 页面: 121-129
- 栏目: Article
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1068-3739/article/view/229522
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373916020060
- ID: 229522
如何引用文章
详细
The article proposes the method of climatic forecast of the occurrence frequency of synoptic conditions causing severe hydrometeorological events as well as severe events that are genetically related to them, in particular, storm wind waves. The choice of sea level pressure field as an indicator of atmospheric conditions of storm waves is substantiated. The algorithm for the method implementation is developed. It includes the processing of observational/reanalysis data; wind wave simulation; the systematization of synoptic conditions that accompany storm waves under the modern climate; the assessment of the ability of climate models of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation to simulate correctly the frequency of the revealed types of synoptic conditions for the modern climate; and the forecast of the frequency of these types for the possible scenarios of the future climate.
作者简介
V. Arkhipkin
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Email: avkislov@mail.ru
俄罗斯联邦, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991
A. Kislov
Lomonosov Moscow State University
编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: avkislov@mail.ru
俄罗斯联邦, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991
G. Surkova
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Email: avkislov@mail.ru
俄罗斯联邦, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991