Том 41, № 2 (2016)
- Год: 2016
- Статей: 10
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1068-3739/issue/view/14199
Article
Weather and Climate Anomalies in Russian Regions Related to Global Climate Change
Аннотация
Possible mechanisms for the formation of significant weather and climate anomalies in Russia in recent years and their relation to global climate change and natural quasicyclic processes are discussed. Extreme Russian heat wave in 2010, the Amur River flood in 2013, and extreme cold winters are analyzed. All these events were associated with the formation of long-lived blocking anticyclones whose frequency increase can be expected under conditions of global warming. To link such events with the global warming, the effects related to regional and global climatically significant natuial quasicyclic processes should be taken into account. They include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Niño—Southern Oscillation.
Variations of Total Nitrogen Oxide Content in the Atmosphere over the North Caucasus
Аннотация
The data are presented on total nitrogen dioxide (NO2) content in the atmosphere from 1979 to 2009 at the high-mountain scientific station located in the unpolluted area in the North Caucasus at the height of 2070 m above the sea level (43.7° N, 42.7° E). The total content of NO2 was measured on the basis of attenuation of direct solar radiation over slope pathways after the sunrise and before the sunset. Characteristics features are analyzed of temporal variability of total NO2 content in the atmosphere related to its diurnal and seasonal variations, 11-year solar activity, volcanic eruptions, quasi-biennial oscillations of tropical circulation, and the El Niño effect.
Estimation of Aerosol Radiation Effects under Background and Smoke-haze Atmospheric Conditions over Siberia from Empirical Data
Аннотация
The results of numerical simulation of downward solar radiation fluxes for background and smoke-contaminated atmospheric conditions are discussed. Vertical profiles of aerosol characteristics are obtained from the empirical model based on the data of aircraft sounding of profiles of angular scattering coefficients and content of absorbing particles in the lower troposphere. The background model was created using the results of measurements obtained under cloudless and mostly cloudless atmospheric conditions in 1999–2011. Optical parameters of smoke aerosol are determined from the data of aircraft measurements in the period of long-term wildfires in Siberia in the summer 2012. It is demonstrated that deficiency in diurnal values of total solar radiation at the surface level caused by the formation of the optically dense smoke layer as compared to background conditions, is more than 13 MJ/m2.
Atmospheric and Hydrogeological Effects of Underground Nuclear Explosions: Theory, Experiment, and Monitoring
Аннотация
In the 1980s–1990s possible climatic consequences of the nuclear war were assessed in the papers by academician G.S. Golitsyn and other scientists. The assessment was based on the data of modeling of radiation and circulation processes in the atmosphere under different scenarios of ground-based and air nuclear exchange. Perhaps, underground nuclear explosions do not result in considerable climate effects associated with the emission of the large amount of aerosol to the atmosphere. However, they may cause changes in the rock structure at the big depth, in the composition of underground water as well as of liquid and gas hydrocarbons; the migration of radioactive products from the explosion melt cavity to the water and hydrocarbon layers. The incompleteness of nuclear reactions and heat emission in the melt cavity can be indirectly judged by the results of a thermal survey of the Earth surface in the epicentral zone of the explosion. It is demonstrated that a thermal anomaly is formed here, the temperature exceeds the background temperature of the Earth surface by 8–10°C. The possibility of the space monitoring of thermal anomalies using low-orbiting satellites is considered. It is shown that at cloudless weather for the typical size and temperature of thermal anomalies the flux density is about 9 × 10−10−2 × 10−9 W/cm2 at the space vehicle orbit in the spectral band of 8–14 μm; so, these objects can be registered.
Occurence Frequency of Storm Wind Waves in the Baltic, Black, and Caspian Seas under Changing Climate Conditions
Аннотация
The article proposes the method of climatic forecast of the occurrence frequency of synoptic conditions causing severe hydrometeorological events as well as severe events that are genetically related to them, in particular, storm wind waves. The choice of sea level pressure field as an indicator of atmospheric conditions of storm waves is substantiated. The algorithm for the method implementation is developed. It includes the processing of observational/reanalysis data; wind wave simulation; the systematization of synoptic conditions that accompany storm waves under the modern climate; the assessment of the ability of climate models of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation to simulate correctly the frequency of the revealed types of synoptic conditions for the modern climate; and the forecast of the frequency of these types for the possible scenarios of the future climate.
Comparing Numerical and Satellite Data on Wind Wave Fields in the Indian Ocean
Аннотация
The results of computation of wind wave fields for two versions of the WAM model (the original version of the European wind wave model WAM4 and its modified version WAM4-M) are compared with satellite measurements. The mapped data on the daily averaged wave height obtained from the data of combined measurements of several satellite altimeters are used. Significant correlation between wind wave series for both models and satellite data is demonstrated as well as the advantage of the WAM4-M model over its original version in accuracy and some statistical parameters of comparison with the altimeter. Advantages and shortcomings of numerical and remote sensing methods of wind wave investigation at the ocean scales are noted.
Field Experiments and Numerical Modeling of Wind Speed and Surface Waves in Medium-size Inland Reservoirs
Аннотация
An attempt is made to apply the modern methods of surface wave simulation developed for oceanic conditions to the modeling of waves in medium-size inland reservoirs (10–100 km). The results of field measurements of wind speed and waves are described, and on their basis the parameterization CD(U10) is proposed. WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model was adapted to the conditions of a medium-size inl and reservoir. The simulated data are compared with the field data. The use of the new parameterization CD(U10) allowed reducing the values of the wind wave growth rate that improved consistency in data from the field experiment and numerical modeling concerning the height of significant waves. Further steps towards improving the quality of prediction of the adapted WAVEWATCH III model are discussed.
Discussion
The Answer to the Comments by Yu. D. Resnyanskii to the Papers by L. Kh. Ingel’ and A. A. Makosko
Аннотация
The critical comments to the publications by the authors ofthe present paper that were given in [10] (the publications deal with the possible effects of gravity field inhomogeneities in the atmosphere and ocean) are discussed. In the authors' opinion, some remarks are groundless. At the same time, the authors agree with one of the important remarks that the results of their paper concerning studies of the ocean disturbances are to be reconsidered.
Reviews and Consultations
Ozone Content over the Russian Federation in 2015
Аннотация
The review is compiled on the basis of the results provided by the system of total ozone (TO) monitoring in the CIS and Baltic countries that functions in the operational regime at the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO). The monitoring system uses data from the national network of M-124 filter ozonometers being under the methodological supervision ofthe Main Geophysical Observatory. The functioning of the entire system is under operational control based on the observations obtained from the OMI satellite equipment (NASA, USA). Basic TO observation data are generalized for each month of the fourth quarter of 2015, for the fourth quarter, and for the year as a whole. The results of regul ar observations of surface ozone content carried out in the Moscow region and Crimea are also provided.