Assessment and Prediction of Droughts Using Climate Change Scenarios (The Case Study: Southeastern Iran)

Аннотация

This study investigates the influence of climate changes on droughts in the Bam region in Central Iran by using climate change scenarios. In this study, the LARS-WG model was used for predicting precipitation parameters; precipitation forecasts were made for three scenarios of climate change (A1, A1B, and B2). In the drought analysis, the SPI was used to obtain the historical and prognostic data. The results indicated that in the study area most of the years can be classified into the normal class according to the SPI index and most precipitation occurs in January, February, March, April, and May. The results also indicated that, according to the Run theory, the longest drought duration was 32 months, according to the SPI drought index with a 12-month scale, and the highest drought severity was −36.37 in this region. The highest percentage of drought frequency in the prognostic data was allocated to the severe class. These results can help immensely in managing the water resources of the region.