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Vol 44, No 3 (2019)
- Year: 2019
- Articles: 8
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1068-3739/issue/view/14306
Article
Changes in Indicators of Temperature Extremes in the 21st Century: Ensemble Projections for the Territory of Russia
Abstract
The study considers the problem of constructing a scenario forecast of changing climatic characteristics of air temperature extremes which are important for the current economy needs. Based on the numerous ensemble experiments with a high-resolution system of models, the probabilistic estimates of future changes in the applied indices of rare temperature extremes over Russia are obtained. Particular attention is given to the quantitative characteristics of uncertainty of the estimates obtained in the middle and the end of the 21st century. The important seasonal and regional features of changes in the analyzed extreme parameters are identified; they should be taken into account when adapting to climate changes at the regional level.
159-168
Monthly and Seasonal Prediction of Precipitation and Air Temperature in the Amur River Basin
Abstract
The ability to forecast air temperature and precipitation at monthly-seasonal time scale in the Amur River basin is assessed. The climatic characteristics of actual monthly values of air temperature and total precipitation are compared with those based on the semi-Lagrangian global finite-difference model (SL-AV) of general atmospheric circulation for the Amur basin. It is shown that there is high correlation between total precipitation for 1–2 months and water discharge in the Amur River in next months during the warm half-year. The SL-AV model forecasts of air temperature and precipitation in the Amur basin are verified. It is demonstrated that the accuracy of prediction of total precipitation averaged over the Amur basin is higher as compared with that for initial gridded forecasts. The accuracy of such forecasts is rather high for July and August being critical months for the flood formation. The procedure for the statistical correction of monthly and seasonal forecasts of air temperature and precipitation based on the SL-AV model and the regression scheme for the Amur runoff prediction are proposed.
169-179
Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Forestry in Russia
Abstract
The projection of economic consequences of climate change for forestry in the subjects of the Russian Federation is obtained for the end of the 21st century. The assessment is based on the numerous high-resolution ensemble simulations of climate change. Due to the expected increase in forest productivity, the stock of coniferous and deciduous woods will grow thus increasing wood cost. An increase in total expenses for forest fire extinction is expected by the end of the century as a result of climate-related changes in fire danger in the Russian Federation subjects. The economic assessment of possible damage due to wildfires shows that the average total cost of forest fire management in Russia can increase under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios by 211114 and 248956 thousand rubles. The most significant increase in the costs of forest fire management is projected in the Tyumen and Arkhangelsk oblasts and in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous okrug-Yugra.
180-186
Wintertime Arctic Oscillation and Formation of River Spring Floods in the Barents Sea Basin
Abstract
Results from the research on the influence of the wintertime (December-February) Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the spring floods of the North European Russia rivers of Onega, Northern Dvina, Mezen’, and Pechora flowing into the White and Barents seas are presented. Composites of the river water discharges from 1930–2014 constructed in accordance with the wintertime AO index above the upper and below the lower quartiles are analyzed. Statistically significant relationships between the dates and intensity of the river spring floods in the Barents Sea basin and the wintertime AO are shown. For all the analyzed rivers, April water runoff preceded by the winters of the AO positive phase significantly increases and by more than twice exceeds that preceded by the winters of the AO negative phase, with the significant runoff increase persisting into May for the Mezen’ and Pechora rivers. The earlier and more intensive floods are caused by the earlier spring warming after the winters of the positive AO phase and larger snow accumulation during these winters as compared to the winters of the negative AO phase.
187-195
Assessment of Possible Location Ru-106 Source in Russia in September–October 2017
Abstract
A method for the identification of the source of Ru-106 emergence in the atmosphere in September-October 2017 is considered. The most probable version of Ru-106 inflow to the atmosphere from the ground-based source in the South or Central Urals is substantiated. The backtrajectories of air masses at the height of 500–1500 m from the areas of Ru-106 concentration measurements at the European stations during the corresponding observation period are calculated to identify a possible source of Ru-106 emission to the atmosphere. The regional transport and the propagation of radioactivity in the near zone in case of a hypothetic emission of Ru-106 from the conditional source in the South Urals are simulated to prove the source position correctness. The simulation results are compared with available measurement data on the daily Ru-106 fallout.
196-202
Sulfide Sulfur in Lake Baikal Sediments
Abstract
The distribution of sulfide sulfur in different parts of Lake Baikal in 2014 and 2015 is analyzed. The concentration of sulfide sulfur in the bottom sediments varied from 0.002 to 0.830 mg/g dry weight (the average value is 0.042 mg/g). Maximum concentration of sulfide sulfur in the lake sediments were typical of the northern region, where the Upper Angara and Kichera rivers flow into, and of some stations on the profile along the Selenga River mouth as well as of the stations located in the zone of underwater discharge of wastewater from the town of Baikalsk and from the Baikalsk Pipe and Paper Mill closed in 2013. This is associated with the active inflow of organic matter to the water column and sediments in such zones.
203-208
Simulation of Sulfur Fallout from a Local Source Using Data on the Chemical Composition of Snow Cover
Abstract
The objective is to determine the portion of sulfur fallout from a large source of sulfur dioxide emission (TPS-1 thermal power station) occurred in the local area (30 × 30 km) in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk in winter. The sulfate fallout in the analyzed area is calcutated with the ISC3 stationary model. To validate the model based on the coefficient of sulfate washout by snow precipitation, the study used the results of sulfate determination in the snow cover at the end of winter obtained at the network of stations that monitored snow cover chemical composition in 2000–2013. According to the simulation results, 8–17% (the mean value is 12%) of sulfur emitted by TPS-1 deposited in the analyzed area in winters in 2000–2013.
209-215
Instruments, Observations, and Processing
Validation of Results of Atmospheric Temperature and Humidity Sounding with a Fourier Infrared Spectrometer onboard the Meteor-M No. 2 Satellite
Abstract
The accuracy of retrieving the profiles of temperature and relative humidity from data of IKFS-2 Russian satellite Fourier spectrometer installed onboard the Meteor-M No. 2 satellite is assessed. The retrieved data were compared with radiosonde data and with the results of numerical weather prediction. It was found that the root-mean-square error of the vertical distribution of temperature in the air column of 1000-100 hPa as compared with radiosonde data does not exceed 2.5 K near the Earth surface and is within 2 K at the other levels. The maximum error of relative humidity retrieval was registered in the tropopause area and made up 35%. The use of water vapor mixing ratio for calculating relative humidity reduced the maximum error to ∼25% in the tropopause area and to 15% at the other levels.
216-221