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Vol 43, No 7 (2018)
- Year: 2018
- Articles: 9
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1068-3739/issue/view/14278
Article
Climatology of Precipitation of Different Genesis in Northern Eurasia
Abstract
A method for discriminating among different types of precipitation is presented. The method is based on surface observations of precipitation, present and past weather, and the morphological types of clouds. The climatology of showery, nonshowery, and drizzle precipitation in Northern Eurasia is studied using the data of 529 Russian weather stations for the period of 1966–2014. Showery precipitation dominates in Northern Eurasia. In general, showery precipitation has greater temporal (monthly and diurnal) and spatial variability than nonshowery precipitation. The majority of showers are registered in summer (the maximum is in July), whereas the high est total monthly nonshowery precipitation is observed in autumn (the maximum is in October). The daily intensity values of showery and nonshowery precipitation are generally close, the maximum intensity is recorded in July–August. For three-hour in tervals, the shower in tensity is by 1.1–1.5 times higher. The drawbacks of the presented methodology are discussed.
425-435
Operative Scheme for the Short-range Complex Forecasting of Wind
Abstract
We describe our scheme of the operative wind (and possible gusts) forecasts with the lead time up to 3 days and evaluate its success. It uses joint statistical processing of the results of several best operative forecasting hydrodynamic weather forecasting schemes. This approach allowed us to reduce the error with respect to original schemes. The operative forecast and its evaluation for the period of 2014–2016 is implemented for ~ 2800 cities of Russia, Belarus, and Central Asia. The update results are represented at the official site of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia every day at 8:30 (a.m. and p.m.), Moscow time.
436-443
Blowing Snow Forecast Using Numerical Atmospheric Model Output Data
Abstract
The object under study is the blowing snow, i.e., the transport of snow lifted from the snow surface. The method is described for predicting the blowing snow initiation using the output data of the WRF-ARW numerical atmospheric model. The skill scores are presented for the forecasts for January 2013 calculated from data of 10 stations of the Canadian weather observation network.
444-448
Estimation of Nocturnal Area Fluxes of Carbon Cycle Gases in Saint Petersburg Suburbs
Abstract
Carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide are the carbon cycle gases, the data on their emissions are needed when monitoring air pollution and developing methods for reducing anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere and for climate forecasting. The estimates of nocturnal area fluxes for CO2, CH4, and CO presented for a suburb of Saint Petersburg (Peterhof) are obtained using the box model and continuous observations of concentration of these gases. The mean values of CH4, CO2, and CO fluxes estimated for Peterhof for 2014–2015 are 44 ± 27, 6100 ± 4000, and 90 ± 100 t/(km2 year), respectively. The intensity of the CO area flux has pronounced seasonal variations characterized by the maximum of ~(160 ± 120) t/(km2 year) in November—February and by the minimum of ~(30 ± 20) t/(km2 year) in June-July. The analysis of the ratio of CO/CO2 fluxes identified the main types of anthropogenic sources typical of Peterhof: motor transport, natural gas combustion, and the use of wood stoves for the heating of private low-rise buildings (in the cold season).
449-455
Wildfire Occurrence in Siberia and Seasonal Variations in Heat and Moisture Supply
Abstract
Subregional occurrence of fires in Siberian forests and seasonal variations in heat and moisture supply are analyzed. Instrumental data on wildfires registered through satellite monitoring data for the period of 1996–2016 are used. The dynamics of the weather fire danger index (PV-1) and intraseasonal anomalies of the Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) defining fire occurrence variation are revealed using meteorological data series for the Siberian subregions. The statistical regularities of the dynamics of the weather fire danger index are summarized for subregions. The separated scenarios are formalized by model functions. The projections of the probability of the scenarios’ implementation, the fire return period, and the respective relative burned area are determined.
456-463
River Runoff Effects on the Coastal Water Transparency in the Western Black Sea
Abstract
Using the data of long-term observations of the Secchi disk visibility depth and water salinity (1947-2000) and satellite monitoring of chlorophyll a concentration (1978-1986), their seasonal spatial distributions and intraannual variability in the coastal waters of the western Black Sea are considered. The estimates of seasonal variations are obtained for the coastal zone of the sea. A good agreement is demonstrated between intraannual variations in the salinity of transformed river water, chlorophyll a concentration, and transparency in the areas where these waters propagate. We studied the effects of the Danube River runoff and transformed river water on the phytoplankton development and chlorophyll a concentration which largely define water transparency.
464-472
Long-term Dynamics of Chemical Pollution of Coastal Waters in the Primorsky Krai, Sakhalin, and Kamchatka
Abstract
The results of the comparative analysis of data of annual observations conducted in the framework of the program for the state monitoring of hydrochemical conditions and pollution of coastal sea waters in the Primorsky krai, Sakhalin, and Kamchatka are presented. Among the numerous pollutants coming to the marine environment, the priority ingredients for these water areas were selected. They characterize the marine environmental conditions in terms of the frequency of high concentrations exceeding the maximum permissible concentration (MPC) and in terms of toxicity: oil hydrocarbons, phenols, synthetic surfactants, and heavy metals. Specific features of interannual dynamics of average annual and maximum concentrations of pollutants for the certain periods are considered as well as the main trends in the composition and quality of water resulting from the anthropogenic impact in 1975–2015.
473-482
On the Possibility to Assess the Ecological State of Aquatic Ecosystems Based on Entropy
Abstract
A new method to assess the state of aquatic ecosystems by the ecosystem entropy variation using data on dissolved oxygen concentration and water temperature is discussed. The method is based on the thermodynamic state parameter which allows the uniform evaluation of the state of aquatic ecosystems regardless of their typological and regional features. The proposed method can be implemented in the automated way and in real time.
483-487
Instruments, Observations, and Processing
Concentration of Stratospheric Ozone Derived from Lidar, Satellite, and Surface Observations
Abstract
Data of stratospheric ozone measurements with the AK-3 lidar over Obninsk in 2012–2015 are compared with Aura/MLS and Aura/OMI satellite data and parallel surface observations of total ozone (TO) with the Brewer spectrophotometer. The maximum difference in mean ozone concentration between the lidar and Aura/MLS data in the altitude range of 13 to 32 km does not exceed 0.2 x 1012 mol./cm3 (or the maximum of 9% at the altitude of 13 km). At the same time, Aura/OMI data have a positive bias of about 20% relative to lidar data in the range of 13 to 20 km that is associated with OMI measurement errors according to literature data. Total ozone values calculated from lidar measurements jointly with the known climatology data are compared with those measured with the Brewer spectrophotometer. It is demonstrated that the correlation between the results of measurements obtained by two methods is close to linear, and the mean relative difference in the overall measurement range does not exceed 5%.
488-493