Vol 42, No 9 (2017)

The paper considers fundamental limitations that impede the growth of performance of supercomputers based on silicon transistors and do not allow satisfying the needs of developing numerical weather and climate prediction models. A brief review of studies dealing with the development of quantum computing algorithms and with the creation of real quantum computers is provided. The shift from pure science to engineering solutions is observed. The leaders of the computer industry set the goal of creating a general-purpose quantum computer in the next few years. It is proved that the applicability of quantum computations and quantum computers for solving the problems of numerical weather and climate prediction should be preliminarily studied and assessed.

A brief description of the MTVZA-GYa microwave radiometer installed on the Meteor-M No. 2 Russian polar orbiting meteorological satellite is presented. The procedures of bias correction and quality control indispensable in satellite data assimilation are considered. The operational system of global data assimilation by the Hydrometcenter of Russia is briefly described. Results of numerical experiments on the assimilation of MTVZA-GYa observations in six temperature-sensitive channels are given. It is demonstrated that the assimilation of these data significantly improves the accuracy of short-range weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. The effect of the use of MTVZA-GY data in the Northern Hemisphere is neutral.

The SL-AV global semi-Lagrangian model of Hydrometcenter of Russia is used for considering the issues of practical predictability of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) recommended by WMO. The index values are computed using the actual data (observations and reanalysis) taken as a reference and the forecast (hindcast) data interpolated to the stations (236 stations on the CIS territory). The analysis of practical predictability is based on diagnostic verification as well as on the model verification measures recommended by WMO. The statistically significant useful signal was detected on monthly and seasonal integration intervals. No useful information is found for the second- and third-month forecasts. A case study for the Republic of Kazakhstan (July 1989) demonstrates the dependence of forecast skill on the atmospheric circulation patterns. It is revealed that in the case of meridional atmospheric circulation forms the model resolution increases and, in some cases, not only moderate but also severe drought can be predicted.

The first baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation (R₁) in the Sea of Okhotsk is estimated using the hydrological datasets from the World Ocean Atlas (WOA) 2001 and WOA 2013. It is established that the maximum values of R₁ are observed over the Kuril Basin (18–20 km), and its minimum values (1.5–2 km), over the northern shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk. In the central part of the sea R1 varies from 8 to 10 km. The seasonal variability of R1 for both datasets is characterized by the minima in winter and by the maxima in summer. It was found that on the eastern shelf of Sakhalin Island R₁ reaches the maximum both in November (∼6 km) and in April (∼4-5 km). According to the obtained estimates of R₁, the model grid resolution of 3 to 8 km should be used for the eddy-permitting numerical simulation of circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk, and the model grid resolution from 1.5 to 2 km, for the explicit simulation of mesoscale variability.

The main stages ofthe modern approach to the wave climate simulation are considered. One of such stages includes the use of wind information as input data for the wave simulation with numerical hydrodynamic models. One of the main sources of wind information is reanalysis data on wind speed at the height of 10 m above the surface which can be used without previous correction for wave calculation not in all sea areas. The approaches to the reanalysis data correction are demonstrated for different seas.

The review is compiled on the basis ofthe operation ofthe system that monitors total ozone (TO) in the CIS and Baltic countries and functions in the operational regime at the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO). The monitoring system uses the data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers under the methodological supervision ofthe Main Geophysical Observatory. The quality of the functioning of the entire system is under the operational control based on the observations obtained from the OMI satellite equipment (NASA, USA). The basic TO observation data are generalized for every month of the second quarter of 2017 and for the quarter as a whole. The data of observations of surface ozone content carried out in the Moscow region and on the Black Sea coast of Crimea are also briefly presented.