Vol 41, No 11-12 (2016)

The effects are considered that global warming and rapid sea ice decline in the Arctic (up to the formation of ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean in summer) made on the hydrological regime of Northern Eurasia. Ensemble computations of climate are provided and changes in the atmospheric water cycle and in water balance in large catchment areas after the loss of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic are estimated. Considerable changes in the hydrological regime are demonstrated on the example of the large catchments of the Siberian rivers; the changes are especially manifested in the period of intense snow melting, i.e., in spring and in early summer. It is revealed that the increase in the frequency of spring floods is expected in the river catchments adjoining the Arctic Ocean. It is demonstrated that the Arctic Ocean ice reduction does not exert as significant influence on variations in the water cycle in Northern Eurasia as the global warming does.

Based on the statistical analysis the teleconnections between circulation anomalies in the atmospheric centers of action and sea surface temperature anomalies are revealed for two types of El Niño. It is demonstrated that for the Eastern Pacific El Niño stronger teleconnections are registered in the Northern Hemisphere whereas the response to the Central Pacific El Niño is much stronger in the Southern Hemisphere. The Central Pacific El Niño is characterized by the more rapid signal propagation from the tropical zone to distant regions. In some cases the pattern of interaction with the atmospheric circulation considerably differs for two types of El Niño that defines differences in the fields of weather anomalies.

It is demonstrated that the greatest influence of the variations in the groupiness of storm waves in the Baltic Sea concerns the highest waves. The variations in the height of less high waves are defined by wind speed. It is revealed that the height of 3% of the highest waves depends on their bandwidth: higher and lower waves are characterized by the larger and smaller set of frequencies, respectively. The significant wave height does not almost depend on the bandwidth. It is found that the spectrum of storm waves in the southwestern part of the Baltic Sea has a multi-peak structure which reflects the complex structure of waves consisting of several wave systems. Envelopes and individual waves of different frequency ranges superimpose, and extreme waves are generated. The probability of occurrence of extreme waves is maximum at the moments of the maximum development of wave groupiness.

Variations in radiation fluxes and the factors that define them and their redistribution in the atmosphere are analyzed using the data of long-term ground-based measurements at the Meteorological Observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. It is demonstrated that since the middle of the 1990s trends in many atmospheric radiation parameters have changed as compared to the trends observed in the previous years. For some parameters the trends are significant, are kept for a long period of time, and. hence, can be considered as climate changes. The potential effects of these changes on the regional warming are assessed.

The system of the cyclic assimilation of data on atmospheric conditions used in the West Siberian Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring is described. It is based on the WRF-ARW mesoscale atmospheric model and on the WRF 3D-Var system of the three-dimensional variational analysis of data. The system is verified when the first approximation data (6-hour forecast) and WRF-ARW forecasts with the lead time up to 24 hours are compared with the observational data. The problems of assimilation of observations from the AMSU-A and AIRS satellite instruments are considered. The effect of using AMSU-A and AIRS for the analysis in the Novosibirsk region is estimated. The experiments demonstrated that the cyclic data assimilation system operates successfully. The AMSU-A observations improve the quality of analyses and forecasts in winter. In summer the impact of satellite observations on the forecast skill scores is ambiguous. Good short-term forecasts are provided by the initial conditions obtained using the system of detailing of the NCEP large-scale analysis.

The changes in the quality of Nansi Lake water due to the building of the new channel of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal are studied. The relationship between algae growth and environmental factors is analyzed. This relationship has practical significance and guiding value for Nansi Lake, it helps to prevent the outbreaks of water bloom effectively and ensure the stable development of economy, society and environment in the regions covered with the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. It is established that the use of the new channel of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal causes the following variations in the lake water: water temperature increases, while the values of pH, TP, and TN decrease. Besides, the content of Fe²⁺ in water depends on regional and seasonal peculiarities; the trend towards the stabilization of SiO₃² is observed. The new channel construction led to variations in chlorophyll-a content mainly due to changed water temperature and pH. Besides, riverbed digging and intense ship traffic also affect water characteristics.

The review is compiled on the basis of the operation of the total ozone (TO) monitoring system in the CIS and Baltic countries that functions in the operational regime at the Central Aerological Observatory. The monitoring system uses the data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers under methodological supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory. The quality of the functioning of the entire system is under the operational control based on the observations obtained from the OMI satellite equipment (NASA, the United States). The basic TO observation data are generalized for each month of the third quarter of 2016 and for the quarter as a whole. The data of routine observations of surface ozone content carried out in the Moscow region and Crimea are also presented.