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Vol 41, No 7 (2016)

Article

Extreme wind speeds in the European sector of the Arctic

Kislov A.V., Matveeva T.A.

Abstract

Variations in extreme wind speed over the European part of the Arctic are studied from the data of meteorological observations, reanalysis, and modeling based on the INM CM4 climate model. It is demonstrated that the extremes determined from the observational data are a mixture of two datasets well simulated by the Weibull distribution. According to the special metaphoric terminology, they are called “black swans” and “dragons.” The analysis of extreme wind speeds based on the reanalysis and INM CM4 data demonstrated that they consist of “black swans” only. This important fact indicates that the models (at least those with medium horizontal resolution) are not able to simulate some essential circulation mechanisms causing the formation of significant anomalies of wind speed. Hence, the problem of direct identification of wind speed extremes based on the atmospheric modeling remains open.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(7):447-454
pages 447-454 views

Relations of lower atmosphere wind dynamics to synoptic conditions and weather phenomena

Lokoshchenko M.A., Alekseeva L.I., Akhiyarova K.I.

Abstract

Nonperiodic vertical and temporal variations in wind direction in the lower 500-meter air layer related to synoptic conditions are studied using the long-term data of acoustic remote sensing by the MODOS sodar at Moscow State University. Average values of wind shear to the right (clockwise) with time as a result of the passage of atmospheric fronts are 55° for cold fronts, 40° for warm fronts, and 45° for occlusion fronts. In some cases the clockwise wind shear may reach 180° per 30 minutes and 720° per several hours. The wind shear to the left with time is usually observed if the northern periphery of anticyclones or the ridge axis pass by. It takes more time than the clockwise wind shear does. Dramatic variations in wind direction with height including synchronous opposite air flows at different heights are observed in the zones of fronts, axes of ridges and troughs (if they are inclined), and cols. The vertical wind shear may reach 250° in the lower 300-meter air layer. Thunderstorms in Moscow are usually accompanied by the average wind speed increase by 1 m/s during 30-40 minutes after their beginning.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(7):455-465
pages 455-465 views

Variations in wind parameters in the Zabaikal’skii krai

Noskova E.V., Obyazov V.A.

Abstract

Interannual variations in wind parameters in the Zabaikal’skii krai are considered. In the recent three decades wind speed has decreased in the most part ofthe territory under consideration. In particular, this was caused by the decrease in the occurrence frequency of strong winds and by the increase in the number of calms. The frequency of northern, eastern, southwestern, and northwestern directions of wind increased over the long-term period. On the contrary, the frequency of northeastern, southeastern, southern, and western winds decreased.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(7):466-471
pages 466-471 views

Computation of extreme ice drift velocities on the northeastern shelf of Sakhalin Island from radar measurements

Shevchenko G.V., Tambovsky V.S.

Abstract

The technology ofthe method of joint probabilities ofthe tidal and residual (de-tided) components developed to estimate the possible sea level fluctuations [1, 10] and modified to calculate rare extreme total sea current velocities [8], is applied to compute ice drift velocity on the northeastern shelf of Sakhalin Island. The initial data are the hourly series of the drift velocity vector obtained from radar observations at Odoptu coastal station (1986-1996, during the whole ice season) and at the Molikpaq drilling platform (in May in 1999, 2000, 2003, 2005, and 2006). The distribution of the tidal component was determined by the prediction of the corresponding series for 19 years that is possible due to the stability of characteristics of the tidal drift. The distribution of the residual component was estimated by combining all de-tided series for the entire time period. The obtained estimates of total ice drift velocities of rare occurrence are in good agreement with those presented in [8] and can be used for designing facilities for the extraction and transportation of hydrocarbons on the northeastern shelf of Sakhalin Island.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(7):472-478
pages 472-478 views

Data assimilation in the ocean circulation model of high spatial resolution using the methods of parallel programming

Kaurkin M.N., Ibrayev R.A., Belyaev K.P.

Abstract

The parallel implementation of the method of multivariate optimum interpolation (MVOI) for the INMIO ocean circulation model with the horizontal resolution of 1/10° and 49 vertical levels is proposed to correct the model computations with the measurement data. The data assimilation in the high-resolution model with the high degree of scalability is tested. The results of numerical experiments on assimilation of data from ARGO drifters located in the North Atlantic are presented. The model output data were also compared with independent data on sea surface temperature obtained from Aqua (NASA) satellite observations. The skill of the model solution was qualitatively evaluated. It is demonstrated experimentally that data assimilation substantially (to 30%) improves the model output data and reduces the error in the operational 24-hour forecast.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(7):479-486
pages 479-486 views

Variability of frost depth in the Volga River basin and its impact on runoff formation in winter and spring under climate change

Kalyuzhnyi I.L., Lavrov S.A.

Abstract

The results of the analysis of spatiotemporal variability of frost depth in the Volga River basin are presented. It is demonstrated that in the geographic zones of the basin the mean frost depth decreased in wide limits: from 10-20 to 90-100 cm and more. It was revealed that the frost depth decrease in the Volga River basin leads to the average increase in winter runoff by 17% (the variation range is from 3 to 42%).

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(7):487-496
pages 487-496 views

Bayesian prediction of minimum river runoff under nonstationary conditions of future climate change

Bolgov M.V., Korobkina E.A., Filippova I.A.

Abstract

The problem of runoff prediction taking into account the possible climate change is considered using the Bayesian approach. The proposed technique is applied to the probabilistic forecasting of minimum runoff variations on the rivers of the Volga River basin.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(7):497-503
pages 497-503 views

Assessment of groundwater impact on water quality in the built-up areas at the Lower Don

Bartsev O.B., Nikanorov A.M., Gar’kusha D.N., Zubkov E.A.

Abstract

The impact is assessed that the groundwater flow from the built-up areas on the left bank of the Don River in the Rostov oblast produces on the chemical composition and quality of surface water in the lower river reaches. It is demonstrated that the total average annual groundwater flow from the built-up areas on the left river bank is very small and equals 0.002 km3/year on average or 0.01% of the average annual water flow in the estuarine outlet. Despite the rather high degree of contamination of groundwater and the high content of principal ions, this causes the insignificant impact of groundwater runoff on water quality in the Lower Don. The average total mass of substances that annually come from the left-bank urbanized areas in the groundwater flow is about 4.9 x 103 t or 0.04% of total mass of substances transported by the Don River to the Taganrog Bay.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(7):504-512
pages 504-512 views

Communications

Boeing 737-800 crash: Weather conditions in Rostov-on-Don on March 19, 2016

Shakina N.P., Ivanova A.R., Skriptunova E.N., Gorlach I.A.

Abstract

Weather conditions at night on March 19, 2016, when Boeing 737-800 crashed in Rostov-on-Don, are analyzed using the data of aerodrome observations and radiosounding, satellite data on cloudiness and cloud top temperature, and the data of synoptic and calculated charts of maximum wind.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(7):513-517
pages 513-517 views

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