Vol 41, No 4 (2016)

Based on the global aerological dataset and on the method for determination of the boundaries and amount of cloudiness using the profiles of temperature and humidity obtained from the atmospheric radiosounding data [23], the estimates are computed for the parameters of atmospheric temperature- humidity separation into cloud and intercloud layers from the surface to the height of 10 km. The base and top of cloud layers and their total thickness and frequency are selected as layering parameters. The computations are based on the data for the observational period of 1964-1998. To specify the spatiotemporal features of atmospheric layering, long-term geographic distributions of mean values and standard deviations of the mentioned parameters are constructed for January and July, and the amplitude of their variations is determined.

The aim of the present paper is to detect recurring fluctuations in the course of annual and seasonal total precipitation in Pomerania. The basic material consisted of monthly sums of atmospheric precipitation obtained from 11 IMGW weather stations from 1951-2010. The analysis comprised both annual and seasonal precipitation recorded in spring (March-May), summer (June-August), autumn (September-November), and winter (December-February). The results of spectral analysis obtained using module functional series revealed a significant cyclical nature of rainfall occurrence. Annual and seasonal total precipitation recorded at 11 stations representative for Pomerania that occurred in the period 1951-2010, have cycles of variable length, i.e., 10-year period for annual sums, 30-year period for autumn, and quasi 7-year period for winter sums. However, the detected cyclical elements differed depending on the station, and their lengths varied greatly depending on the season: approximately from 6 to 30 years. The greatest variability in cyclicality was recorded in summer precipitation, whereas during the calendar spring the changes in total precipitation recorded at most of the hstations in periods of the same length.

Using observational data from 50 weather stations in Georgia for the period of 1936-2013, the following climate indices of moisture regime are studied: maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation, the simple daily intensity index, the number of days with precipitation equal to not less than 10, 20, and 50 mm, number of consecutive wet and dry days. Geoinformation maps of the spatial structure are plotted, and the dynamics of these indices is studied for the period of global warming. Expected changes in the moisture regime in different physiographic regions in Georgia are assessed.

Data on sampling long-term monthly mean distributions of Antarctic sea ice extent are analyzed for the period of 1974-2013. In the framework of propositions on the nature of variations in the components of limited-area system, the numerical model of sea ice extent dynamics was developed. It is demonstrated that in 1974-2013 the variations in monthly mean sea ice extent were defined by semiannual, annual, 30-year, and 60-year periodic components. The interpolation of the obtained results is presented. The forecast of Antarctic sea ice conditions for 2015-2135 is given.

The results of forecasting the Chilean tsunami in the Pacific Ocean on April 1,2014are presented. For the first time in Russia the forecast was prepared in the near real-time mode 9.5-10.5 hours before the tsunami attacked the Russian coast. A good agreement was obtained with the tsunami forms registered by DART stations along the US West Coast and the Aleutian and Kuril Islands. The information about the expected tsunami meets the requirements to the short-term tsunami forecast formulated by UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.