Atmospheric Blocking and Changes in Its Frequency in the 21st Century Simulated with the Ensemble of Climate Models

Resumo

The estimates of changes in the frequency of atmospheric blocking based on the CMIP5 ensemble simulations with modern climate models of general circulation are obtained using various criteria of atmospheric blocking detection and different RCP scenarios of anthropogenic forcing for the 21st century. To assess the quality of the model simulation of atmospheric blocking characteristics, the meridional seasonal distributions of the blocking frequency are compared with reanalysis data. The results demonstrate that the choice of the ensembles of the best models (in terms of the blocking simulation for the modern climate) is important. For the best models, a risk of the blocking frequency increase in the warming climate is noted, which is not observed in the results for the full ensemble.