Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Runoff Characteristics for the Volga Basin Rivers

Abstract

Long-term changes in peak spring runoff and daily minimum winter and summer-autumn runoff in the Volga River basin are analyzed based on observational data from 94 gaging stations. It is revealed that climate changes in the basin during the period from the late 1970s till the middle of the 1980s led to the significant increase in minimum discharge, but maximum runoff changed ambiguously. The regions with the disturbed uniformity of the series of extreme values of river runoff are identified. Changes in the values of high runoff, above the 10% probability, and low runoff, below the 90% probability, are analyzed for current climate conditions. Under nonstationary conditions, it is recommended to assess the probability characteristics of extreme runoff with compound distribution curves or based on the Bayesian approach.