Integration of synoptic and hydrodynamic monthly air temperature forecasts
- Authors: Tsepelev V.Y.1, Khan V.M.2, Mironicheva N.P.3, Eliseev G.V.2, Ivanova E.K.2, Tishchenko V.A.2, Utkuzova D.N.4, Vil’fand R.M.2, Martazinova V.F.5
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Affiliations:
- Russian State Hydrometeorological University
- Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation
- Northwestern Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute
- Issue: Vol 42, No 8 (2017)
- Pages: 485-493
- Section: Article
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1068-3739/article/view/230239
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373917080015
- ID: 230239
Cite item
Abstract
The results of experiments on the integration of synoptic and hydrodynamic forecasts of monthly air temperature for the northwestern part of Eurasia for the period of 2011–2015 are presented. The comprehensive comparison of skill scores of individual and integrated forecasts is provided. It is demonstrated that during the cold season hydrodynamic forecasts have the highest skills among the other forecasts. It is revealed that empirical methods are characterized by the forecast skill increase in summer and by its decrease in winter and during the period of spring transformation of atmospheric circulation. In most cases the integration of diverse methods allows combining their benefits and improving the resultant forecast skill. The synchrony was detected in the forecast skill variations. It is shown that the forecast skill mainly depends on the persistence of macrocirculation patterns.
About the authors
V. Yu. Tsepelev
Russian State Hydrometeorological University
Email: vilfand@mecom.ru
Russian Federation, Malookhtinskii pr. 98, St. Petersburg, 195196
V. M. Khan
Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation
Email: vilfand@mecom.ru
Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 11–13, Moscow, 123242
N. P. Mironicheva
Northwestern Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
Email: vilfand@mecom.ru
Russian Federation, Dvadtsat’ tret’ya liniya 2a, V.O., St. Petersburg, 199106
G. V. Eliseev
Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation
Email: vilfand@mecom.ru
Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 11–13, Moscow, 123242
E. K. Ivanova
Email: vilfand@mecom.ru
V. A. Tishchenko
Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation
Email: vilfand@mecom.ru
Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 11–13, Moscow, 123242
D. N. Utkuzova
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Email: vilfand@mecom.ru
Germany, Telegraphenberg, A 31, Potsdam, 14473
R. M. Vil’fand
Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation
Author for correspondence.
Email: vilfand@mecom.ru
Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 11–13, Moscow, 123242
V. F. Martazinova
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute
Email: vilfand@mecom.ru
Ukraine, pr. Nauki 37, Kiev, 03028