Assessment of Operational Risks of Electric Interlocking Systems

Аннотация

This article proposes a technique for assessing risks related to operational reliability levels of systems of electric interlocking of track switches and signals at railroad stations. The assessment relies on the mathematical model of such random processes as failures and recoveries of the system of electric interlocking of track switches and signals and on using this system to fulfill train traffic control functions at a given station. The risk related to the operational safety of the electric interlocking system is calculated for the railroad station in general, not for a specific scenario of events. The statistics of safety violation events is based on a small sample. The risk related to the operational reliability of the electric interlocking system is assessed using risk matrices in the form of tables, where the likelihood of occurrence and the number of train delays at the station due to failures in the electric interlocking system are used together. The train delay likelihood found from the matrix is used as the frequency of events to assess operational reliability level risks. The number of trains delayed per calculated period and the average time of train delay at the considered station are used as event aftereffects. The assessment results can be used to make valid managerial decisions.