Climatic potential for winter wheat yield in Russia

Abstract

The potential of crop yields illustrates the possibilities of increasing their production in the future. Modeling of potential yield of winter wheat on the European part of Russia was conducted based on specially developed GIS and the WOFOST crop growth simulation model. It was found that the winter wheat yield for Russia in general can be increased by 70% in the modern climatic conditions. The maximal potential for yield increasing was found in the regions situated on the Northern edge of the crop cultivation. In the Northern Caucasus, real crop yield is close to the climatic maximum; however, due to large crop acreage in Krasnodar krai, Stavropol krai, and Rostov and Volgograd oblasts, wheat harvest in each region can still be increased by 1–3 mln tons in each of them.