Scenario Assessment in Industrial Emergencies

Abstract

An algorithm is proposed for determining the target development scenario for an industrial emergency arising from terrorist attack or other unsanctioned actions, by assessment of the threats to critical system elements. Criteria are selected for ranking possible scenarios. The target scenario is identified by multicriterial optimization—specifically, by means of the displaced ideal in fuzzy decision making. By means of the algorithm developed for fuel and power companies, a hazard class may be assigned to any unsanctioned intervention, and improved security measures may be developed.