The influence of climate change on the dates of bird arrival to the Ilmen State Reserve (Southern Urals)

Abstract

The results of long-term observations (1983–2013) on the dates of arrival of migratory birds to the Ilmen State Reserve are presented. Based on their analysis, it is conclude that (1) there is no significant positive trend of spring temperatures in the territory of the reserve, and (2) an earlier arrival of the majority of bird species is not observed, unlike in Europe. The arrival has shifted to earlier dates in the Common Chaffinch (Fringilla coelebs), White Wagtail (Motacilla alba), and Black Kite (Milvus migrans). On the other hand, the arrival of the Tree Pipit (Anthus trivialis) is observed later than usual. Multiple regression analysis has shown that the arrival dates of most species that nest in the reserve are determined by the temperature regime of spring months in their nesting area.