Effects of climate change on the distribution of endemic Ferula xylorhachis Rech.f. (Apiaceae: Scandiceae) in Iran: Predictions from ecological niche models

Abstract

Ferula xylorhachis Rech.f. is an endemic plant species belonging to the Apiaceae family and distributed in northeastern Iran. In the present study, we attempted to determine the factors with the greatest effects on the distribution of this species and to determine suitable regions for it based on current and future conditions. The Maximum Entropy method was used in the present study and the results indicated that the Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter (48.2%), Precipitation of Wettest Quarter (49.1%), and Precipitation of Wettest Month (61.4%) are the most important factors in the current and in two future periods (2040 and 2070). The models suggest that suitable regions for the presence of this species will change over time and that the species will encounter limitations through changes such as moisture reduction. According to the A1B scenario, increases in greenhouse gases such as CO₂ and CH₄ will have direct effects on future precipitation and temperature and these factors will be important in determining species dispersion. Evaluation of important habitat factors using normal ecological methods will help in developing the best conservation programs in the future. Introducing species to new regions will help to protect them from the extinction risk caused by climate change.