Detecting Impact Orbits of Asteroids by Means of Representation of the Initial Confidence Region in the Form of a Sequence of Ellipsoidal Hypersurfaces

Abstract

A method for detection of impact orbits of near-Earth asteroids is considered. The method uses splitting of initial confidence region into a sequence of ellipsoidal hypersurfaces corresponding to preset values of the confidence coefficient. The method uses parametric equations of confidence ellipsoid in the six-dimensional phase space. The method is tested for detecting impact orbits of potentially dangerous near-Earth asteroids 1994 WR12 and 2015 RN35 posing an impact threat to the Earth.