A Solution to the Problem of Assessing Aviation Safety by Simulation Modeling

Abstract

In connection with the planned increase in the intensity of air traffic worldwide, air traffic management systems need to be modernized. As aviation safety is a priority in the development of civil aviation, any changes to these systems have to be accompanied by an assessment of the aviation safety level. The estimates can be obtained by simulation modeling (SM). In the paper, the problem of the assessment of the aviation safety level using a simulation model of the controlled air traffic is formulated. Further, the authors consider the applicability of this model to formulate the reliability requirements for the radio communication, navigation, and surveillance systems that would assure an acceptable aviation safety level in prospective air traffic management systems. The methods and the model developed for the solution of these problems, as well as the calculated aviation safety estimates for the air traffic service sector are described.