Selection of Priority Areas in Research and Development

Abstract

The article considers the problem of selecting priority areas in research and development based on processing expert information used as a basis for the information computing system—an automated expert evaluation system. The resulting ordering of independent innovative projects takes into account the Kemeny median approach for preference vectors and the method for minimizing the sum of their ranks. It is proposed to develop the system in the form of a resource method for selecting priority areas. The probability distribution function of the technical success of a project in this method is described by the Weibull distribution. A mathematical model is developed to maximize the feasibility of a portfolio of independent projects. The feasibility is unstable if the source data are inaccurate. An effective method is recommended for solving the formulated problem of selecting a portfolio of priority (ongoing) innovative projects. A solution is proposed to the optimization problem of determining the priority of their financing.