Long-Term Prediction of Radionuclide Emission from Submerged Objects in the Kara Sea

Abstract

Analysis of the distribution of radionuclides in the water and bottom deposits in the bays of the Kara Sea attests that the radionuclide emission from the sources of radioactive materials dumped into the bays decrease over time. The equations of the transport of radionuclides in submerged objects into the marine environment beyond their limits were constructed on the basis of new results. Evaluations of the consequences of the long-term presence of submerged radiation-hazardous objects at the sea bottom depend on the temporal reduction of the time constant for the emission of radionuclides. The calculations show that taking account of this parameter with the formation of corrosion openings in closed submerged objects the emission of ²³⁹Pu from them into the ambient environment will almost cease after several hundreds of years (700 or more years). Neglecting this factor, the emission of ²³⁹Pu will continue to increase for 6000–12000 years, and the contamination of the bottom deposits by this isotope will be significant.