Monitoring geomagnetic disturbance predictors using data of ground measurements of cosmic rays

Abstract

Results from investigating the behavior of zonal components of the first two angular moments of the distribution of cosmic rays observed in 2015 are presented. The global survey approach developed at the Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, is used to determine the zonal harmonics. In this technique, the worldwide network of neutron monitors acts as a single multidirectional detector of cosmic rays. It is shown that sharp increases in the positive amplitudes of zonal harmonics, considered to be predictors of geomagnetic field disturbances with a probability of ~0.75, precede geomagnetic storms with Dst < −50 nT. A geomagnetic storm predictor becomes apparent in periods of time from several hours to 1.5 days. Geomagnetic disturbances are currently monitored in real time using the global survey approach based on data from the worldwide neutron monitor database (http://www.nmdb.eu). The initial results from forecasting can be found on the Internet (http://www.ysn.ru/~starodub/SpaceWeather/global_survey_real_time.html).