Ultimate ground level enhancements of solar cosmic ray intensity

Abstract

Possible values of ground level enhancements (GLEs) of the intensity of solar cosmic rays (SCRs) that can be recorded by neutron monitors (NMs) are estimated in two different ways for the ultimate spectra of solar protons. The first approach uses the statistical dependence between the maximum values of the integral proton flux >100 МeV and the GLE recorded by an NM. The second is to calculate the expected effect for the ultimate spectrum at a particular NM with known couple coefficients, atmospheric depth, and the threshold of the geomagnetic cutoff. Estimates using the first method vary from 9600 to 160000% for high-latitude NMs; estimates using the second method, from 1200 to 750000%. The obtained lower limits approximately correspond to GLE values observed earlier, and the upper limits are two orders of magnitude higher. Studies of the possible impact of solar proton events with spectra close to ultimate on the Earth’s atmosphere and biosphere should be continued.