A synergetic approach to analysis of probabilistic and deterministic components of seasonal and long-term dynamics of European bank voles in the areal center

Abstract

A comprehensive description and analysis of the probabilistic and deterministic components of the seasonal and long-term dynamics of the bank vole in the center of the range were carried out. It was noted that in the first half of the breeding season, the long-term total of the probabilities of implementation of the population numbers is described by an asymmetrical lognormal distribution, and the process of its formation is to the continuous time Markov branching process. In the second half, several homogeneous groups of probability distributions were distinguished that were separated from each another by the minimum points. It was found that the phenomenon described is a stochastic analog of the structurally stable Hopf bifurcation. It was revealed that the oscillations from the equilibrium state of a population that appear under the influence of external disturbances can be assimilated by it, becoming a source of improvement of the regulator mechanisms.