Predicting the technical state of hazardous objects via simulation modeling

Abstract

The paper considers mechanical objects, the violation of the safety of which could occur as any limit state is reached, including predetermined states, albeit not revealed in a timely manner, and undetermined states that lead to unexpected hazardous states that enhance the risk of an accident. The reason for this lies in the uncertainty of information about the dynamics of the technical state of these facilities, which is due to imperfections and irregularities at the stages of manufacturing and operation (application). A model of the technical state dynamics and a forecasting algorithm based on the method of simulation modeling has been developed. This allows one to construct event trees for predicting potential damage and failure at the stage of manufacturing and for the early detection of precursors of limiting states at the stage of operation and, thus, for the elimination of inefficient and hazardous states.