Russian Hydropower under the Global Climate Change

Abstract

The influence of the climate change in Russia on the operation of hydroelectric power plants during the 21st century is considered. For obtaining quantitative assessments, the results yielded by global climatic models for river runoff were subjected to ensemble averaging. In addition to the standard RCP climatic scenarios, the MPEI scenario is considered, the fundamental distinctive feature of which is that the most likely development trajectories are selected. It is found that the choice of a scenario has an essential effect on both the qualitative pattern of river runoff changes over the territory and on the quantitative characteristics of this process. An integral assessment for the change in the hydroelectric power plant outputs due to climate change is made.