Contribution of Natural and Anthropogenic Emissions of CO2 and CH4 to the Atmosphere from the Territory of Russia to Global Climate Changes in the Twenty-first Century

Abstract

Estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia to global climate change under different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions in the 21st century are obtained. It is shown that the consideration of the changes in climate conditions can strongly affect the indicators of impacts of different greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, especially over long time horizons. In making decisions, it is necessary to take into account that, with respect to the planning horizon, the role of natural flows of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from the terrestrial ecosystems can change. Currently, in the Russian regions, CO₂ uptake by terrestrial ecosystems decelerate global warming, and their CH₄ release into the atmosphere accelerate it. In this case, the general effect of natural fluxes of these greenhouse gases from the Russian regions under modern conditions foster deceleration of warming. The role of this effect decelerating warming will grow in the first half of the 21st century, and after reaching the maximum, which depends on the scenario of anthropogenic emissions, it will decrease by the end of the century under all scenarios of anthropogenic impacts considered due to the growth of natural emissions of CH₄ and a decrease in the absorption of CO₂ by the terrestrial ecosystems.