Variations in the Duration of the Navigation Period along the Northern Sea Route in the 21st Century Based on Simulations with an Ensemble of Climatic Models: Bayesian Estimates

Abstract

As global warming continues in the 21st century, one can expect a significant increase in the duration of the navigation period along the Northern Sea Route. In this study we found that, according to the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the anthropogenic impact, the expected duration of the navigation period along the Northern Sea Route in the middle of the 21st century would be two to three months and three to six months by the end of the century.