Analysis of changes in tornadogenesis conditions over Northern Eurasia based on a simple index of atmospheric convective instability

Abstract

A simple index of convective instability (3D-index) is used for analysis of weather and climate processes that favor to the occurrence of severe convective events including tornadoes. The index is based on information on the surface air temperature and humidity. The prognostic ability of the index to reproduce severe convective events (thunderstorms, showers, tornadoes) is analyzed. It is shown that most tornadoes in North Eurasia are characterized by high values of the 3D-index; furthermore, the 3D-index is significantly correlated with the available convective potential energy. Reanalysis data (for recent decades) and global climate model simulations (for the 21st century) show an increase in the frequency of occurrence of favorable for tornado formation meteorological conditions in the regions of Northern Eurasia. The most significant increase is found on the Black Sea coast and in the south of the Far East.